DJ Moore
vs Joe Burrow

“In those two games, Moore has had ELITE usage and production with a 30.9% target share, 3.55 YPRR, two red zone targets, four deep targets, 0.170 FD/RR, and a 33.3% first-read share. I’m mentioning Moore here because this week he possibly gets a shadow from Christian Gonzalez , but in most weeks he is a set-and-forget must-start. This season, Christian Gonzalez has followed DK Metcalf , Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and Brian Thomas following them on 50-86.4% of their routes.”

“DJ Moore posted a 15.3% TPRR in 2025 while playing in a crowded Bears receiving corps. His Buffalo debut posted a casual 33.3% TPRR on 24 routes. What stands out to me is that this was on the road against the vaunted Houston defense.”

“It’s a logical move: DJ Moore is a bonafide WR1 and is particularly good at both running precise routes at the start of a play and finding an opening for his QB when a play breaks down.”

“DJ Moore (WR – BUF) DJ Moore already finished as a WR1 earlier in his career, back in 2023, when his 96/1,364/8 resulted in a WR6 finish.”

“DJ Moore (WR – BUF) Buffalo’s offense enters 2026 with one of the clearest target vacuums in the league. With Stefon Diggs leaving three years ago and no true alpha wide receiver on the roster, the Bills needed a reliable veteran who could immediately step into a featured role. After shaking off a brief lower‑body scare early in camp, DJ Moore returned to full participation and instantly clicked with Josh Allen .”

“DJ Moore (WR – BUF) After years of dealing with subpar quarterbacks, Moore gets to play with Josh Allen in 2026. Yet, he has been productive, averaging 14 or more PPR fantasy points per game in five of seven seasons since his rookie year despite never being an elite touchdown scorer.”

“Moore could have similar success with Allen under center.”

“The addition of DJ Moore will certainly hurt Khalil Shakir’s stock, but in a half-PPR league, he’ll have some value.”

“However, I’m imploring you to go after the market share of the receiving work in PPR formats, because DJ Moore is an extremely cheap bellcow WR.”

“Moore has a new home for 2026 and beyond after being traded to Buffalo as Josh Allen ‘s new WR1.”

“DJ Moore will finish the season as a WR1. Coming off the worst season of his career (50 REC, 682 YDS, 6 TDs, WR35 in Half PPR), Moore was traded from the Bears to the Bills. He is now catching passes from arguably the best QB in the league, Josh Allen.”

“Both Brown and Erickson believe playing with Josh Allen creates a dramatically different fantasy outlook than Moore has experienced previously. Brown also argued that Buffalo didn't acquire Moore simply to make him another complementary piece. The expectation is that Moore becomes a featured receiver within the offense.”

“Bengals Bengals QB Joe Burrow had 58 passing attempts in the loss to the Jaguars on Sunday, but feels that the team can throw it even more going forward.”

“Burrow had an underwhelming opener, but he’s tallied 489 passing yards (244.5 per game), 7.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), five passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two subsequent contests, scoring 19.88 DraftKings points per game and 19.88 FanDuel points per game in the last two weeks. The Bengals lost a shootout last week, and the Jaguars have the firepower to push Burrow into a ceiling performance through the air. His top passing-game weapon will be featured in the core studs.”

“Joe Burrow may not be a must-start this week, but Chase Brown , Ja’Marr Chase , and Tee Higgins are all auto-starts.”

“According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 33 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, Burrow ranks: 13th in passing yards per game (230.5) 19th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.14 ANY/A) Tied for 14th in passing touchdowns (three) 10th in expected passing touchdowns (3.5) 21st in rushing yards per game (9.5) Interestingly, the Bengals are just fifth in pass rate over expected (6.3% PROE) this year. That’s still pass-happy, but Cincinnati tied for first in PROE (7.9%) from 2023 through 2025. Their defense is better, and the washed-up, Aaron Rodgers -led Steelers are unlikely to push Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense into a shootout.”

“Joe Burrow nearly gifted Tampa Bay a pick-six, the Buccaneers heavily guarded Chase, and Burrow simply could not connect with his WR1. That extra attention also opened things up elsewhere: TE Mike Gesicki finished with five catches for 78 yards and a TD as Tampa Bay focused on containing Chase and Tee Higgins . Look, that does not completely let Chase off the hook.”

“Joe Burrow’s health has been a concern in recent years, but I’ll bank on him playing a full season with one of the easiest schedules in football. I believe 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns are more than doable.”

“But if Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who missed nine games last season, enjoys a season of good health, McPherson should have his fair share of FG and PAT opportunities.”

“When Joe Burrow was healthy, he was a top-three quarterback last season”

“The pivot to more under-center passing won’t be as natural and certainly might not be anywhere near as successful for the Bengals, because Burrow clearly isn’t as comfortable and doesn’t perform as well. In fact, if we go back the last three years, Burrow’s under-center dropbacks average just 3.6 air yards, which ranked dead last: #69 out of 69 qualifying QBs. His time to throw of 2.81 seconds was the #5 fastest out of 69 QBs, and he threw just 17% of passes 10+ yards downfield, also ranking dead last.”

“Zac Taylor wants the Bengals to play more from under center in 2026. Unfortunately, Joe Burrow under center is precisely where this offense struggles most, which is why the Bengals haven't used it often of late. How much the Bengals choose to pivot to under-center passing and how much Burrow can improve on these dropbacks might have a large impact on their fortunes in 2026.”

“Overvalued: Joe Burrow, Quarterback (QB4, Pick 59 OVR) Now, this isn’t to say that I don’t like Joe Burrow, or that I don’t think that Joe Burrow is a talented player; I just think that Joe Burrow is capped insofar as he doesn’t rush at all, and the Bengals’ offensive line isn’t strong enough for him to be a consistent top-four player without the rushing.”

“Of the top-10 quarterbacks based on LTV, Burrow is the one quarterback with little to no rushing upside, making him the quarterback I would want to trade away.”