Joe Burrow
vs David Montgomery

“Bengals Bengals QB Joe Burrow had 58 passing attempts in the loss to the Jaguars on Sunday, but feels that the team can throw it even more going forward.”

“Burrow had an underwhelming opener, but he’s tallied 489 passing yards (244.5 per game), 7.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), five passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two subsequent contests, scoring 19.88 DraftKings points per game and 19.88 FanDuel points per game in the last two weeks. The Bengals lost a shootout last week, and the Jaguars have the firepower to push Burrow into a ceiling performance through the air. His top passing-game weapon will be featured in the core studs.”

“Joe Burrow may not be a must-start this week, but Chase Brown , Ja’Marr Chase , and Tee Higgins are all auto-starts.”

“According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 33 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, Burrow ranks: 13th in passing yards per game (230.5) 19th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.14 ANY/A) Tied for 14th in passing touchdowns (three) 10th in expected passing touchdowns (3.5) 21st in rushing yards per game (9.5) Interestingly, the Bengals are just fifth in pass rate over expected (6.3% PROE) this year. That’s still pass-happy, but Cincinnati tied for first in PROE (7.9%) from 2023 through 2025. Their defense is better, and the washed-up, Aaron Rodgers -led Steelers are unlikely to push Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense into a shootout.”

“Joe Burrow nearly gifted Tampa Bay a pick-six, the Buccaneers heavily guarded Chase, and Burrow simply could not connect with his WR1. That extra attention also opened things up elsewhere: TE Mike Gesicki finished with five catches for 78 yards and a TD as Tampa Bay focused on containing Chase and Tee Higgins . Look, that does not completely let Chase off the hook.”

“Joe Burrow’s health has been a concern in recent years, but I’ll bank on him playing a full season with one of the easiest schedules in football. I believe 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns are more than doable.”

“But if Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who missed nine games last season, enjoys a season of good health, McPherson should have his fair share of FG and PAT opportunities.”

“When Joe Burrow was healthy, he was a top-three quarterback last season”

“The pivot to more under-center passing won’t be as natural and certainly might not be anywhere near as successful for the Bengals, because Burrow clearly isn’t as comfortable and doesn’t perform as well. In fact, if we go back the last three years, Burrow’s under-center dropbacks average just 3.6 air yards, which ranked dead last: #69 out of 69 qualifying QBs. His time to throw of 2.81 seconds was the #5 fastest out of 69 QBs, and he threw just 17% of passes 10+ yards downfield, also ranking dead last.”

“Zac Taylor wants the Bengals to play more from under center in 2026. Unfortunately, Joe Burrow under center is precisely where this offense struggles most, which is why the Bengals haven't used it often of late. How much the Bengals choose to pivot to under-center passing and how much Burrow can improve on these dropbacks might have a large impact on their fortunes in 2026.”

“Overvalued: Joe Burrow, Quarterback (QB4, Pick 59 OVR) Now, this isn’t to say that I don’t like Joe Burrow, or that I don’t think that Joe Burrow is a talented player; I just think that Joe Burrow is capped insofar as he doesn’t rush at all, and the Bengals’ offensive line isn’t strong enough for him to be a consistent top-four player without the rushing.”

“Of the top-10 quarterbacks based on LTV, Burrow is the one quarterback with little to no rushing upside, making him the quarterback I would want to trade away.”

“Through three games, David Montgomery is averaging a whopping 2.7 YPA. He’s seeing about 52% of the touches, nowhere near the workhorse numbers everyone projected in the offseason. Woody Marks looks like the more explosive back of the two, though his numbers aren’t much better.”

“Montgomery has a 4.5% explosive run rate, 1.54 yards after contact per attempt, and a 12% missed tackle rate. If Houston can play with a lead, Montgomery could have a bounceback game this week against Indy’s putrid run defense. Indy has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest rushing success rate, the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt, and the fourth-highest missed tackle rate.”

“We have not seen much usage from Woody Marks yet, but David Montgomery should feast and may leave Marks (RB36) with some decent scraps. Blake Corum , RB, Los Angeles Rams The back half of 2025 saw Corum have an increase in workload with significant touches leading into the playoffs. Corum appears to be maintaining a similar workload and is due for a trip to the endzone.”

“On the bright side, Montgomery does still have all four of the Texans’ carries inside the 10-yard line. But goal-line work alone is a recipe for an inconsistent FLEX play, not a viable RB2. The whole thesis behind Montgomery this season was his workhorse volume, and it hasn’t been there through two weeks (he’s also been fairly inefficient, for what it’s worth).”

“David Montgomery will likely operate as the team’s workhorse.”

“David Montgomery (RB – HOU) I’m not buying the offseason narratives that the Texans backfield will be a 50/50 split. David Montgomery will likely operate as the team’s workhorse.”

“Longshot Bet: David Montgomery to Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards (+8000) David Montgomery has bell-cow history.”

“David Montgomery (HOU) At his cost in the middle rounds, Montgomery has the potential to win your league.”

“For all those reasons, David Montgomery is a player I am not leaving any drafts with, especially because this potential top-12 running back can be drafted.” – Adam Dove ( The Fantasy Couriers ) Travis Etienne Jr.”

“Montgomery has played seven seasons in the NFL and has had 201 carries or more in five of them. He fell under that number in the last two seasons (185 in 2024 and 158 in 2025), but that was mostly due to how utterly unstoppable Jahmyr Gibbs is.”