Joe Burrow vs David Montgomery

“Over the last four seasons, Burrow has established himself as one of the NFL's premier fantasy quarterbacks even without the rushing upside of the Allen/Lamar types. He finished as the overall QB3 or better for 14 weeks in that span. What's wild is he missed 17 games in that span!”

“Joe Burrow's health has been the biggest hurdle for this team in recent seasons. If he remains healthy, Burrow will put up MVP numbers, and the Bengals will be in the thick of the playoff hunt in a loaded AFC field of contenders.”

“Seeing Joe Burrow go ahead of quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye is quite shocking, but Burrow is firmly going as the QB2 on Fantrax. If Burrow were to have another season like 2024, with 45 total touchdowns and almost 5,000 passing yards, he would be worthy of this selection. But we also have to consider the possibility of a repeat of his 2025 season, in which Burrow played only eight games and threw 17 passing touchdowns while finishing with fewer than 2,000 yards in half a season.”

“Joe Burrow was faded at ADP 46 with a 5% win rate and 40% top 6% finish, and the verdict was Right.”

“It would also be fair to point out that over the last three years, Burrow has played a full season only once.”

“Burrow doesn't belong here, having finished QB15 in points per game last season, after finishing QB3 in 2024 and QB27 in 2023. Burrow is an elite quarterback by NFL standards, but the way fantasy football works heavily favors dual threats, and Burrow adds nothing there.”

“Joe Burrow is strictly a pocket passer at this point in his career, and the opportunity cost of passing on running backs and wide receivers at Burrow's ADP is too steep when there isn't much that separates him from the next handful of quarterbacks selected after him. The Bengals signal-caller essentially has to have another career year to break even, and even a slightly less favorable passing touchdown rate will lead to him performing at his three-year scoring average of 18.7 fantasy points per game.”

“Joe Burrow finished 24 spots lower than his QB5 ADP, landing at QB29, and was one of three top-five quarterbacks in ADP that became massive fantasy busts, having missed 19 combined games because of injury.”

“You are not just taking Chase at 1.01 to be different; you have created a roster path fewer drafters are willing to follow, and you do not have to worry about the Joe Burrow QB snipe that happens wayyyyy too often and is way more popular.”

“Joe Burrow finished Week 17 as a top-12 quarterback (QB11).”

“Burrow played in just eight games because of a toe injury he suffered while taking a sack.”

“Burrow is blitzed less often than both Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa, but he is getting hit within 2.5 seconds at over double the rate. Burrow: Hit within 2.5 seconds on 6.2% of dropbacks (#1) with 148 total quick hits.”

“The bigger reason for optimism is touchdown upside. Houston's running backs failed to capitalize near the goal line last season, while Montgomery has consistently shown an ability to finish drives throughout his career. If his workload climbs beyond that baseline, Ciely believes Montgomery has a realistic path to finishing as a top-15 fantasy running back.”

“Jake Ciely views David Montgomery as an ideal RB2 because his current draft price already assumes a conservative workload. Looking back at Houston's backfield production over the past two seasons, Ciely argued that even if Montgomery handled roughly 60 percent of the workload, he'd still return value at his current ADP.”

“With his new team, David Montgomery pulls a Joe Mixon and posts a top-10 season in his first year with the Texans. Houston traded a fourth-round pick and more to acquire the veteran running back, and the coaches have been very public about their excitement to use him.”

“Montgomery has left Detroit for Houston. Possibly being the featured back in an offense that is desperately trying to keep the ball out of CJ Stroud's hands has a huge appeal. He is also usually last in his tier that has a huge drop off after.”

“David Montgomery now finds himself as the Texans' do it all workhorse for 2026. Montgomery is the superior back, even at this stage of his career, and he'll be a strong volume-driven RB2 that could flirt with RB1 production.”

“Since DeMeco Ryans took over in 2023, Houston's top ball carrier has averaged 249 touches a season, and Montgomery is going to get all the work he can handle, with second-year back Woody Marks getting sprinkled in for some touches here and there.”

“Montgomery should be fresh after a career-low 182 touches last year, and he's about to slide right into a workhorse role with offensive coordinator Nick Caley recently gushing about him.”

“Montgomery is also coming off the fewest rushing yards of his career. He is also going from the Lions' elite offensive line to the Texans' offensive line, which graded as the worst run-blocking unit in 2025.”

“Of the four backs in this article, David Montgomery may have the clearest path to RB1 production, despite being the least exciting option. Motivated to showcase that he can still be a featured back, Montgomery finds himself as the leader of the Houston Texans' backfield.”

“Look for Montgomery to carry the load, en route to 1,000+ yards and 10+ touchdowns.”

“The Texans clearly want to establish a smash-mouth identity. A power back who can break tackles and wear out opposing defenses like Montgomery fits that bill.”

“Houston is projected to have one of the best defenses in recent memory. That could put Montgomery in several positive game scripts in which the Texans are trying to chew up the clock to maintain their lead.”