Mike Evans
vs Quinshon Judkins

“Mayfield returns fully healthy, and veteran wideout Mike Evans has departed for San Francisco, leaving Chris Godwin as Egbuka’s main competition for targets.”

“Evans is not being drafted at WR27 because he suddenly stopped winning routes. He is being discounted because he is 33, has changed teams, and is coming off the first injury-ravaged season of his career.”

“However, if he ends up playing 13+ games, fantasy managers will be ecstatic. Another reason I am willing to take the risk of injury with Evans is that when he plays, he should be a locked-in top-12 player on this offense each week.”

“Mike Evans is now in San Francisco, which is important because when Evans wasn’t on the field last season, Egbuka’s target share was 28%”

“Mike Evans has a new home with the 49ers, and he looks like a wonderful value in fantasy drafts.”

“Evans is almost 33 years old with an accumulation of injuries over 12 years. We are dangerously close to the performance cliff here, so it is perilous to assume that he will just absorb most of the 168-target vacancy.”

“Watch this space with the arrival of Mike Evans in San Francisco. Evans has been an integral part of one of the most efficient offenses in this category during his time down in Tampa Bay, and it will be interesting to see if that advantage translates to the same extent in Kyle Shanahan's system.”

“Investing in Evans can be risky, but we know he's got talent, is in a good situation, and is paired with a solid quarterback. This could be shaping up to be 2025 Davante Adams, which was a smash value in drafts.”

“Ted Hurst also has some potential as a big outside weapon and could replace some of Mike Evans' targets.”

“Among 42 qualifying rushers, Judkins has the seventh-lowest explosive run rate while ranking 29th in yards after contact per attempt and 21st in missed tackle rate. Judkins will put up another snoozer stat line this week against a Pittsburgh run defense that has the tenth-best stuff rate while allowing the seventh-lowest rushing success rate and the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate.”

“Judkins is averaging 0.64 yards before contact per rush, 33rd on that same list. He has been targeted on 24.3% of his routes (RB15) but has still run a route on only 35.6% of dropbacks (RB26), sharing passing duties with Raheim Sanders . Pittsburgh is 24th in expected points allowed per game to running backs , coming off allowing 69 total yards on 15 touches to Chase Brown on Sunday.”

“Judkins has a 68.3% snap rate with 53.3% of the rushing attempts, a 38.5% route share, and a 13.5% target share. He has handled all three of the Browns’ red zone rushing attempts this season. Unfortunately, he has been woefully inefficient with his workload, with zero explosive runs, 1.42 yards after contact per attempt, and an 8% missed tackle rate.”

“Quinshon Judkins is the Ballers consensus RB22 and can be benched if you have better options.”

“Quinshon Judkins has had 12 carries in each of his first two games and hasn’t had a run of 10 or more yards. He’s averaging 2.3 yards per carry behind a rebuilt Browns offensive line that ranks dead last in the run-blocking metric adjusted line yards. But Judkins gets a favorable home matchup against a Panthers defense that has given up the most rushing yards to RBs.”

“Quinshon Judkins is the RB33 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.5 touches and 49 total yards per game.”

“Judkins is averaging 2.25 YPC on 24 carries (54 total yards), but he did have five receptions this week with Dylan Sampson out of the lineup. That may be enough to convince another owner that he is a true workhorse back and worthy of an RB2 trade. Maybe an opportunistic Chuba Hubbard owner would consider swapping for Judkins, knowing that the Browns are fully committed to him as their RB1?”