Mike Evans
vs Rome Odunze

“Mayfield returns fully healthy, and veteran wideout Mike Evans has departed for San Francisco, leaving Chris Godwin as Egbuka’s main competition for targets.”

“Evans is not being drafted at WR27 because he suddenly stopped winning routes. He is being discounted because he is 33, has changed teams, and is coming off the first injury-ravaged season of his career.”

“However, if he ends up playing 13+ games, fantasy managers will be ecstatic. Another reason I am willing to take the risk of injury with Evans is that when he plays, he should be a locked-in top-12 player on this offense each week.”

“Mike Evans is now in San Francisco, which is important because when Evans wasn’t on the field last season, Egbuka’s target share was 28%”

“Mike Evans has a new home with the 49ers, and he looks like a wonderful value in fantasy drafts.”

“Evans is almost 33 years old with an accumulation of injuries over 12 years. We are dangerously close to the performance cliff here, so it is perilous to assume that he will just absorb most of the 168-target vacancy.”

“Watch this space with the arrival of Mike Evans in San Francisco. Evans has been an integral part of one of the most efficient offenses in this category during his time down in Tampa Bay, and it will be interesting to see if that advantage translates to the same extent in Kyle Shanahan's system.”

“Investing in Evans can be risky, but we know he's got talent, is in a good situation, and is paired with a solid quarterback. This could be shaping up to be 2025 Davante Adams, which was a smash value in drafts.”

“Ted Hurst also has some potential as a big outside weapon and could replace some of Mike Evans' targets.”

“Odunze is the WR61 in fantasy points per game with only one outing this season with at least double-digit PPR points. Odunze has a 15.4% target share with 1.67 YPRR, four red zone targets, seven deep targets, and a 17.5% first-read share. Christian Gonzalez has followed DK Metcalf , Garrett Wilson , and Jaxon Smith-Njigba this season on 65.4-86.4% of their routes.”

“Rome Odunze led the team in routes but was targeted on just 9% of them.”

“According to Mando’s Targets Per Route Run report , Odunze has a 17.2% TPRR, which is 63rd among qualified receivers and below the position average. Luther Burden and Colston Loveland are also getting their share, so Odunze is more of a big-play option than a volume one. However, he is creating separation, which we love to see, so I am predicting an uptick in his utilization.”

“Per Next Gen Stats…Odunze led the team in routes (31), catches (6, tied with Colston Loveland) and yards (94) for his best outing of the young season. He doesn’t lead the team in targets or catches this season, but does lead in yards (233) and air yards share (35.9%). Luther Burden caught 4 of 6 official targets (7 true) for 63 yards and carried once for 11 yards (a 17.6% official/18.4% adjusted target share.”

“Odunze has only a 13.3% target share with 1.72 YPRR, two red zone targets, five deep targets, and a 13.1% first-read share. This week, he faces a Jets’ secondary that has the fifth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (65.4%). Against two-high, Odunze’s target-per-route run rate drops from 18% to 14%, and his yards per route run dips from 2.00 to 1.38.”

“Rome Odunze has devolved into the “sacrificial X” for the Bears. He’s behind Luther Burden III and (shocker) Kalif Raymond in targets. I still have hope for him and Colston Loveland , but it’s quickly fading.”

“On top of that, Odunze has played 79.8% of his snaps out wide, where he will lock up with Mitchell and Woolen. Factoring all of that in, Odunze is a touchdown-dependent WR4/FLEX. Kalif Raymond Raymond still is not going away.”