Quinshon Judkins
vs D'Andre Swift

““ Quinshon Judkins had a surprisingly solid performance last Thursday night against the Steelers, but I still don’t buy it. The Browns are winning, yet Judkins is still having a tough time getting going. The second-year back is averaging an abysmal 3.0 yards per carry this season and hasn’t topped 70 rushing yards in a game yet.”

“Judkins is averaging 0.64 yards before contact per rush, 33rd on that same list. He has been targeted on 24.3% of his routes (RB15) but has still run a route on only 35.6% of dropbacks (RB26), sharing passing duties with Raheim Sanders . Pittsburgh is 24th in expected points allowed per game to running backs , coming off allowing 69 total yards on 15 touches to Chase Brown on Sunday.”

“Judkins has a 68.3% snap rate with 53.3% of the rushing attempts, a 38.5% route share, and a 13.5% target share. He has handled all three of the Browns’ red zone rushing attempts this season. Unfortunately, he has been woefully inefficient with his workload, with zero explosive runs, 1.42 yards after contact per attempt, and an 8% missed tackle rate.”

“Quinshon Judkins is the Ballers consensus RB22 and can be benched if you have better options.”

“Quinshon Judkins has had 12 carries in each of his first two games and hasn’t had a run of 10 or more yards. He’s averaging 2.3 yards per carry behind a rebuilt Browns offensive line that ranks dead last in the run-blocking metric adjusted line yards. But Judkins gets a favorable home matchup against a Panthers defense that has given up the most rushing yards to RBs.”

“Quinshon Judkins is the RB33 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.5 touches and 49 total yards per game.”

“Judkins is averaging 2.25 YPC on 24 carries (54 total yards), but he did have five receptions this week with Dylan Sampson out of the lineup. That may be enough to convince another owner that he is a true workhorse back and worthy of an RB2 trade. Maybe an opportunistic Chuba Hubbard owner would consider swapping for Judkins, knowing that the Browns are fully committed to him as their RB1?”

“Among 43 qualifying backs, Swift is eighth in yards after contact per attempt and tenth in missed tackle rate. Swift has 14 of the team’s 20 running back red zone carries while playing 64.1% of the snaps with a 51.4% rushing share, a 35.7% route share, and a 9.2% target share. Swift should have another strong stat line this week against a Jets’ run defense that has allowed the second-highest rushing success rate, the tenth-most yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.”

“Still, Swift’s ECR ranking of RB13 is a bit too rich for me. He’s a fine back and as consistent as they come, but Swift has never finished that high positionally in his six NFL seasons.”

“Swift had the better role and scored 17.7 half-PPR points per game with 17.75 expected half-PPR points per game, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0. Monangai averaged 9.77 half-PPR points per game and 7.29 expected half-PPR points per game. According to Jahnke, Swift had a 61.1% snap share versus 38.9% for Monangai over the first six drives, but Swift lost a fumble on the sixth drive.”

“Among 43 qualifying backs, Swift ranks sixth in yards after contact per attempt and eighth in missed tackle rate. Swift should have success again this week. Philly has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest missed tackle rate.”

““ D’Andre Swift’s fantasy outlook is usually pretty rosy with the potent Bears’ offense and a weaker defensive opponent, but not this week. The injuries to Caleb Williams and backup Tyson Bagent have put a dark cloud over the Windy City. Chicago might have to go with veteran Case Keenum against a stout Eagles’ defense, led by their star linemen Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter .”

“D’Andre Swift has one of the largest deltas (12%) in his TPRR and his True Target Rate (factoring in pass blocks).”

“D’Andre Swift ran for 124 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries, splitting time in the backfield with Kyle Monangai , who had a great day in his own respects (10 carries for 100 yards and a score). Swift was able to find gaping holes all afternoon against Carolina, with head coach Ben Johnson dialing up plays to utilize his quickness in space. Look for this trend to continue as long as he stays healthy this season.”

“D’Andre Swift will be our RB1 with Jeremiyah Love possibly on the shelf for at least the first week. Swift cleared 1,000 yards last season while being part of a committee.”

“D’Andre Swift may share Chicago’s backfield with Kyle Monangai , but the Bears should field one of the league’s better offenses under head coach and accomplished running-game designer Ben Johnson .”