Joe Burrow
vs Zay Flowers

“Burrow is projected for around 19.6 points in an offense that’s throwing the ball 36-plus times a game. When a quarterback is that entrenched as the engine of his offense, a tough matchup on paper isn’t enough to scare me off. Burrow’s also sitting in a game with a 27-point implied team total for Cincinnati, which tells me the market expects Cincinnati to move the ball regardless of what Jacksonville’s defensive numbers say.”

“Burrow had an underwhelming opener, but he’s tallied 489 passing yards (244.5 per game), 7.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), five passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two subsequent contests, scoring 19.88 DraftKings points per game and 19.88 FanDuel points per game in the last two weeks. The Bengals lost a shootout last week, and the Jaguars have the firepower to push Burrow into a ceiling performance through the air. His top passing-game weapon will be featured in the core studs.”

“Joe Burrow may not be a must-start this week, but Chase Brown , Ja’Marr Chase , and Tee Higgins are all auto-starts.”

“According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 33 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, Burrow ranks: 13th in passing yards per game (230.5) 19th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.14 ANY/A) Tied for 14th in passing touchdowns (three) 10th in expected passing touchdowns (3.5) 21st in rushing yards per game (9.5) Interestingly, the Bengals are just fifth in pass rate over expected (6.3% PROE) this year. That’s still pass-happy, but Cincinnati tied for first in PROE (7.9%) from 2023 through 2025. Their defense is better, and the washed-up, Aaron Rodgers -led Steelers are unlikely to push Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense into a shootout.”

“Joe Burrow nearly gifted Tampa Bay a pick-six, the Buccaneers heavily guarded Chase, and Burrow simply could not connect with his WR1. That extra attention also opened things up elsewhere: TE Mike Gesicki finished with five catches for 78 yards and a TD as Tampa Bay focused on containing Chase and Tee Higgins . Look, that does not completely let Chase off the hook.”

“Joe Burrow’s health has been a concern in recent years, but I’ll bank on him playing a full season with one of the easiest schedules in football. I believe 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns are more than doable.”

“But if Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who missed nine games last season, enjoys a season of good health, McPherson should have his fair share of FG and PAT opportunities.”

“When Joe Burrow was healthy, he was a top-three quarterback last season”

“The pivot to more under-center passing won’t be as natural and certainly might not be anywhere near as successful for the Bengals, because Burrow clearly isn’t as comfortable and doesn’t perform as well. In fact, if we go back the last three years, Burrow’s under-center dropbacks average just 3.6 air yards, which ranked dead last: #69 out of 69 qualifying QBs. His time to throw of 2.81 seconds was the #5 fastest out of 69 QBs, and he threw just 17% of passes 10+ yards downfield, also ranking dead last.”

“Zac Taylor wants the Bengals to play more from under center in 2026. Unfortunately, Joe Burrow under center is precisely where this offense struggles most, which is why the Bengals haven't used it often of late. How much the Bengals choose to pivot to under-center passing and how much Burrow can improve on these dropbacks might have a large impact on their fortunes in 2026.”

“Overvalued: Joe Burrow, Quarterback (QB4, Pick 59 OVR) Now, this isn’t to say that I don’t like Joe Burrow, or that I don’t think that Joe Burrow is a talented player; I just think that Joe Burrow is capped insofar as he doesn’t rush at all, and the Bengals’ offensive line isn’t strong enough for him to be a consistent top-four player without the rushing.”

“Of the top-10 quarterbacks based on LTV, Burrow is the one quarterback with little to no rushing upside, making him the quarterback I would want to trade away.”

“The yards after catch haven’t shown up either, and with Zay Flowers projected to be back in the lineup, Andrews’ target competition is only getting tougher. Until the usage changes, I’d rather chase the matchup upside somewhere else at the position. Final Thoughts Three weeks into the season, the gap between box score and underlying performance is starting to matter more than ever.”

“Zay Flowers is coming off WR12 in FPPG last season, and could have an improved situation with Declan Doyle as offensive coordinator.”

“There’s a world where Zay Flowers has the talent to be a top-5 fantasy WR if he can ever score TDs. Over 1,200 yards. 86 catches and 5 TDs (WR7) in 2025. WR3 over the last five games. 4+ catches in 13 of his 17 games: a testament to his reliable floor and consistent involvement.”

“Zay Flowers will be the focal point of the passing attack, leading Baltimore in targets. However, Lane is competing with Rashod Bateman and an aging Mark Andrews for the No.”

“Zay Flowers dominated Baltimore’s passing game in 2025 and remains Lamar Jackson’s most trusted target.”

“Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) “ Zay Flowers is being drafted as WR17, which is a bit of a head scratcher considering he finished as WR12 in PPG for receivers that played more than half the year (WR14 if not).”

“Flowers posted 86 catches, 1,211 yards, and six total touchdowns last year despite playing for a team that threw the fewest passes in the league over the last three years.”

“Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) is set up for touchdown regression in the best way. Every other receiver who topped 1,200 receiving yards last year scored at least eight touchdowns except him.”