Jalen Hurts vs Joe Burrow

“Of the top-10 scorers overall in 2025, only Allen, Nix, and Jalen Hurts were selected as top-10 picks.”

“Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) One of the most severely underrated quarterbacks heading into the 2026 NFL season is Jalen Hurts.”

“For Hurts to be a midrange QB1 or better, he’ll have to put up big rushing numbers, and we saw his rushing numbers decline last year. After four straight years of double-digit TD runs, with an average of 13 rushing touchdowns a season over that stretch, Hurts had eight TD runs last year. The Eagles had faithfully used the “tush push” every time they got inside the opponent’s 2-yard line in recent years.”

“At his midrange QB1 price, Hurts has to deliver significant rushing value to give you a satisfying return on investment. Because let’s face it: Hurts has been a pretty average passer. Hurts has never had a 4,000-yard passing season.”

“Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) One analyst has been aggressively targeting Hurts this year, a name that generates little draft-day excitement, which is exactly what makes him appealing. He’s currently being drafted in the QB10-to-QB11 range in single-quarterback leagues, worse than his consensus QB6 ranking, with reports of him falling as far as QB9 or 15 spots past his listed ADP in real drafts.”

“It is reasonable to say that Hurts probably will not be a top-three guy moving forward with the decrease in rushing, but we are betting on his rushing TDs to come back up past double digits and put him in a position to score more fantasy points. Right now his ADP is fair, and you can be comfortable taking him in the sixth round.”

“Unfortunately, Hurts averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game last year, posting an average below 20.8 for the first time in his career as the full-time starter despite totaling a career-high 25 passing touchdowns. However, Hurts’ rushing production regressed, totaling single-digit rushing touchdowns for the first time since his rookie season.”

“Jalen Hurts lost A.J. Brown , but the upgrade at play-caller could be huge. Kevin Patullo was one of the worst offensive coordinators in recent memory.”

“The clearest path to a bounce back is rushing volume: Hurts topped 600 rushing yards in each of the two seasons before last year, then dropped to 421, and his rushing touchdown total fell to eight after previously reaching double digits.”

“Last season, Hurts finished as the QB8 with 299.1 fantasy points, a strong output that contradicts the offseason doubt. Hurts remains a dual-threat quarterback with weekly spike potential, and his rushing ability continues to drive his fantasy value.”

“After averaging at least 21 fantasy points per game from his first full season as a starter in 2021 to 2024, Jalen Hurts slipped to 19.1 fantasy points per game in 2025. A decrease in rushing production was largely to blame, as Hurts' 421 rushing yards last season marked a five-year low, and his streak of four straight seasons with double-digit rushing touchdowns was snapped, with only eight TD runs in 2025.”

“Philadelphia has the easiest schedules at every position, including quarterback. The rest of the year is filled with cakewalk matchups, making Hurts an attractive Round 2 target in startups.”

“Lamar Jackson , Jayden Daniels , Joe Burrow , Baker Mayfield , and Kyler Murray all were selected as top-12 players at the position and finished double-digit slots behind expectations in terms of points per game.”

“Round 1: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) To kick things off at No. 4 overall, I went with Joe Burrow .”

“Even with a modest target share, Higgins maximizes his opportunities in one of the NFL’s premier passing offenses led by Joe Burrow .”

“The pivot to more under-center passing won’t be as natural and certainly might not be anywhere near as successful for the Bengals, because Burrow clearly isn’t as comfortable and doesn’t perform as well. In fact, if we go back the last three years, Burrow’s under-center dropbacks average just 3.6 air yards, which ranked dead last: #69 out of 69 qualifying QBs. His time to throw of 2.81 seconds was the #5 fastest out of 69 QBs, and he threw just 17% of passes 10+ yards downfield, also ranking dead last.”

“Zac Taylor wants the Bengals to play more from under center in 2026. Unfortunately, Joe Burrow under center is precisely where this offense struggles most, which is why the Bengals haven't used it often of late. How much the Bengals choose to pivot to under-center passing and how much Burrow can improve on these dropbacks might have a large impact on their fortunes in 2026.”

“Overvalued: Joe Burrow, Quarterback (QB4, Pick 59 OVR) Now, this isn’t to say that I don’t like Joe Burrow, or that I don’t think that Joe Burrow is a talented player; I just think that Joe Burrow is capped insofar as he doesn’t rush at all, and the Bengals’ offensive line isn’t strong enough for him to be a consistent top-four player without the rushing.”

“Of the top-10 quarterbacks based on LTV, Burrow is the one quarterback with little to no rushing upside, making him the quarterback I would want to trade away.”

“Burrow was once again impactful when on the field, completing 66.8% of his passes for a 6.6% touchdown rate. Burrow is the only quarterback with a touchdown rate of 6% or higher in each of the past two seasons.”

“Despite finishing the season as the QB29 last season due to missed games, Burrow finished the season red hot. Through the final six weeks of 2025, Burrow was on pace for 4500+ passing yards and 43 passing TDs. Since 2023, Burrow in Week 1 has been atrocious.”

“Over the last four seasons, Burrow has established himself as one of the NFL's premier fantasy quarterbacks even without the rushing upside of the Allen/Lamar types. He finished as the overall QB3 or better for 14 weeks in that span. What's wild is he missed 17 games in that span!”

“Joe Burrow's health has been the biggest hurdle for this team in recent seasons. If he remains healthy, Burrow will put up MVP numbers, and the Bengals will be in the thick of the playoff hunt in a loaded AFC field of contenders.”

“Seeing Joe Burrow go ahead of quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye is quite shocking, but Burrow is firmly going as the QB2 on Fantrax. If Burrow were to have another season like 2024, with 45 total touchdowns and almost 5,000 passing yards, he would be worthy of this selection. But we also have to consider the possibility of a repeat of his 2025 season, in which Burrow played only eight games and threw 17 passing touchdowns while finishing with fewer than 2,000 yards in half a season.”