Josh Allen vs Derrick Henry

“Allen has finished as the QB1 or QB2 every season over the past six years, despite not having a big-name No. 1 wide receiver since Stefon Diggs was traded away. Yet, the superstar quarterback hasn't needed an elite set of weapons because of his touchdown production, totaling at least 39 passing and rushing scores in six consecutive seasons.”

“Josh Allen is listed as the QB1, which is fine and fairly standard, but his ADP is 4.42. Allen finished with about 43 more points than Matthew Stafford last season. At MFL, you need to spend a top-five pick to acquire him, which doesn't make any sense from a fantasy football perspective.”

“Josh Allen is coming off his lowest passing yardage since 2019 (3,668), and for the past three seasons, he's not broken the 30 passing touchdown barrier. Allen sustains his value purely through rushing touchdowns with 41 in the last three seasons.”

“Josh Allen was worth his QB1 capital, returning value on his ADP as the only top-seven quarterback in ADP to finish as a QB1.”

“He's either finished as the fantasy QB1 or QB2 for the last six straight seasons. In Superflex? Allen is the top player on the board. Even over Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.”

“Furthermore, his arm talent and intangibles will aid him in the coming years as his rushing volume and efficiency figures wane.”

“The pinnacle of consistency, Josh Allen has been living at the top for years now. In fact, he finished as the QB1, QB2, and QB1 in 2023, '24, and '25, respectively.”

“You cannot blame Josh Allen's overall performance as the reason they cannot seem to accomplish their goals of making it to and then winning the Super Bowl.”

“In his five losses, he's averaged +0.14 EPA per play and a 51.2% success rate. Where do those stats rank among quarterbacks in playoff losses over the last five years? #1 in EPA/play #1 in success rate”

“He has the #1 best TD:INT ratio in the postseason over the last five years. He has thrown 25 playoff touchdowns to only 4 interceptions, a TD/INT rate of 6.3 that ranks #1.”

“If you look at the 24 quarterbacks with at least 50 playoff pass attempts since 2020, Allen is the #1 most efficient quarterback in the playoffs. #1 in EPA per play (+0.15) #1 in success rate (50%)”

“Josh Allen's 18.5 ADP is the problem, as the quarterback position has never been deeper for fantasy players, with Brock Bowers (19.6), Nico Collins (19.7), and Omarion Hampton (19.8) having a later ADP than Allen despite all three should getting drafted over the superstar quarterback.”

“For all of his accolades as the league's most physical runner, Henry is a non-factor in Baltimore's passing game. With 20 or fewer receptions in eight of Henry's 10 NFL seasons, a sudden shift turning him into the next Christian McCaffrey or Jahmyr Gibbs is not envisioned.”

“The Ravens run first and do everything else second, and they run through Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, leaving few rush attempts for Randall.”

“Derrick Henry's 30.2 Sleeper ADP is a classic case of dynasty anxiety ruining redraft logic. Managers see his age and automatically assume a total collapse, completely ignoring the fact he ran for 1,500+ yards and 16 touchdowns last season. Henry remains the ultimate hammer in a Baltimore Ravens offense that completely sanitizes his negative game scripts. He retains a locked-in monopoly on goal-line touches and high-value red-zone opportunities.”

“While some won't draft Henry for fear his age makes him an injury risk, the veteran has played in at least 15 games in all but one year of his career, including 17 contests in three consecutive seasons. He was RB8 last year, averaging 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game despite totaling only 15 receptions, 18 fewer than any other running back to finish top 20.”

“At the end of the day, drafting Henry is a bet that he can continue to stiff-arm Father Time and post the best rushing season of the last two decades for a player this old. But there are other elite-upside players at his ADP without the red flags, so the juice is not worth the squeeze.”

“The issue with Henry is that, coming off a season with fewer than one reception per game, he needs to be absolutely dominant on the ground to provide elite fantasy value. And in recent history, the list of dominant rushing seasons by players 32 or older is essentially nonexistent.”

“Derrick Henry is just one representative of a simple site-wide trend: ESPN drafters love running backs compared to the expert consensus. His positional ECR is RB13; his ESPN ADP is RB10, where experts see King Henry as a high-end RB2, ESPN drafters still view him as a top-10 option.”

“The veteran has played in at least 15 games in all but one year of his career, including 17 contests in three consecutive seasons. He was RB8 last year, averaging 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game despite totaling only 15 receptions. He had at least 1,150 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in four consecutive seasons, finishing as a top-eight running back every year.”

“That might be the right move and use that "leftover" $12 on a more impactful player, such as moving from Derrick Henry to Jahmyr Gibbs.”

“The future Hall of Famer has a lot of miles on him, but is ready to make another big impact in his eleventh NFL season. "I love putting the work in, conditioning, being in the weight room, being around the guys, and putting the work in in the offseason," Henry said.”

“We saw it in 2024 with Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, for example.”

“Robinson is expected to surpass Derrick Henry ($15MM AAV) in his contract negotiations.”