Trevor Lawrence
vs Dalton Kincaid

“A high-scoring week overall made him the QB15 (19.8 points), but that was a solid fantasy outcome for gamers, considering Lawrence did nothing in the fourth quarter because of the blowout. Lawrence had 1 dropback in the final quarter, the second time in three weeks Jacksonville has cruised to the end of a game. The Jaguars are 24th in pass rate over expectation (-2.6%) because they have led so often this season.”

“Trevor Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career and WR Parker Washington is the real deal after his late-season breakout last year.”

“Trevor Lawrence has been Jekyll and Hyde to begin the season. He beat up on the Browns as the QB5 for the week, and then he was the QB26 in weekly scoring last week against Denver. Among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, fifth in passing success rate, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, 25th in hero throw rate, and he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate.”

“Two weeks into the season, Trevor Lawrence ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in both expected points added (EPA) per play and fantasy points per dropback. The issue is that he ranks 28th in total dropbacks, dead last among signal-callers to have played all of their team’s two games. That volume should trend upward, and Lawrence’s fantasy scoring will follow.”

“Trevor Lawrence could have very well finished atop the quarterback leaderboard this week, had he played an entire game. With Jacksonville off to a 24-0 lead at halftime over Cleveland, the Jaguars eased off the throttle, before opting to sit Lawrence in the final quarter of play. Even still, he threw four touchdowns and 245 yards on 18 completions and targeted five players at least twice.”

“Parker Washington Picked Up Where He Left Off Trevor Lawrence has plenty of fantasy points to give, and can support multiple starters. But Washington is unquestionably his favorite target. Lawrence spread the ball around on Sunday, connecting with Washington, Jakobi Meyers , Brenton Strange , and Josh Cameron for TDs.”

“Trevor Lawrence could lean on Strange this week with his perimeter wide receivers staring down tough matchups.”

“In 2023, Lawrence had an 81.1 PFF grade, a 5.8-percent big-time throw rate, a 3.9-percent turnover-worthy play rate, and a 72.3 adjusted completion percentage. Those numbers were virtually identical across the board in 2025, down to a total difference of nine passing yards between the two seasons, and he cleared 4,000 in both. The exception to that would be his big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rates, which dropped to 4.6 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.”

“Kincaid has always been productive per-route; it’s just been a matter of running enough routes to pay off in fantasy. Finally, in his fourth season, it seems we may have the Dalton Kincaid we’ve all been waiting for. Kincaid’s 21% target share is just behind DJ Moore at 22%, and he’s leading the team by a mile with 2.72 half-PPR points per target.”

“Josh Allen , James Cook III, and Dalton Kincaid are easy starts for Buffalo.”

“Kincaid is picking up right where he left off last season from an efficiency standpoint. He currently ranks first among all tight ends in: Yards per route run (4.89) First downs per route run (0.196) Yards per target (16.1) Yards per reception (18.8) Air yards (182) Receiving yards (225) Explosive Rating (159.2) This comes on the heels of a 2025 season where he was similarly superior in several metrics and stats. The difference this year?”

“Dalton Kincaid : 52.5 Receiving Yards – Higher I was tempted to include Dalton Kincaid among the core studs instead of Washington, but I chose to include him in this section instead. Kincaid is amid a full-blown explosion after excelling on a per-route basis last year. He has ripped off the following numbers in two games this year: 71.1% snap share 65.7% route participation rate 23.3% target share 0.30 TPRR 21.2% first-read rate 6.0 receptions per game 112.5 receiving yards per game 4.89 Y/RR Kincaid has tallied 130 and 95 receiving yards against the Texans and Lions, respectively.”

“Kincaid has been one of the most efficient tight ends in the NFL, particularly last season when he posted the highest target rate and deep target share, along with the most yards per target, yards per route run, and fantasy points per route run. Part of the issue with Kincaid has been his health, but he’s also been limited to a part-time player next to Dawson Knox . He notched a 38% snap share last season, good for 70 th among all tight ends, and was 32 nd in route participation at 51%, still managing a TE13 finish in PPG.”

“If Dalton Kincaid could get a near full-time route share, he would be a league winner and season-defining player at the tight end position. Last year, Kincaid was a monster on a per-route basis, leading to a TE13 finish in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Kincaid ranked FIRST in target per route run rate, yards per route run, separation score, route win rate, first downs per route run, and fantasy points per route run.”

“If Dalton Kincaid could get a near full-time route share, he would be a league winner and season-defining player at the tight end position.”