Saquon Barkley vs A.J. Brown

“Likely everyone’s biggest question around the Eagles is, can Saquon Barkley bounce back in 2026? The simple answer is yes; it is in the range of outcomes. However, the reality is that Saquon is 29 and getting older.”

“For 2025, Saquon had an 8% greater success rate running Outside vs Inside Zone .”

“While a minor post-Super Bowl efficiency dip was baked into 2025 projections, Saquon Barkley ’s drop from RB4 draft capital to an RB14 positional finish exposed severe infrastructure cracks.”

“After finishing last year as the RB14, fantasy players should avoid drafting Barkley as a mid-range RB1.”

“Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) After running laps around the position in 2024, Saquon Barkley’s finish of RB14 was a shock. Despite only missing one game, he scored 214 fantasy points compared to the 339 points he scored in 2024.”

“Given the season he had in 2024 and the expectations created for gamers, Barkley may have produced the most disappointing 1,413-yard, 9-touchdown season in history. Regression was certainly expected coming off his historic run the year before, and a lot went wrong for this offense.”

“Add this all up — plus another 300+ projected touches — and Barkley could be looking at another top-five season at running back at a significant discount on Fantrax. He has a realistic path to another 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 10+ touchdowns.”

“With a new offensive coordinator and a healthy offensive line, it's not hard to start seeing the positives for Barkley. The Eagles running back is the undoubted No. 1 RB on an offense that will score points.”

“Barkley had an absurd number of touches in 2024 and ran hot on explosive runs. Once he and the Eagles were hit with regression, it was no wonder things crashed back to Earth.”

“Over the last two seasons, Barkley has averaged just 35 receptions for 275 receiving yards and two touchdowns. A decline in per-touch efficiency, as he nears 30, is also working against him, as he has steadily transitioned away from being a big-play threat and into more of a volume-based option at running back.”

“This means that former Jaguars back Tank Bigsby is likely the man behind Saquon Barkley to start the season. Barkley has been relatively healthy the past several seasons, though he is coming off his worst fantasy finish since 2021. Barkley is also on the precipice of his age-29 season, the age at which most running backs begin to decline rapidly in efficiency.”

“Saquon Barkley (RB, Eagles) was the top-rated player from the NFL Top 100 for the 2025 season.”

“There’s no doubting Brown’s talent; however, I do wonder if the way to replace a slot receiver (Diggs) that was the key piece of your offense is to add a physical outside receiver like Brown. There are also my concerns about his knee in the long term.”

“At 28, Brown is a big upgrade for a Patriots passing game that ranked fifth in the league, a huge improvement from the Eagles’ 27th-ranked unit.”

“A.J. Brown was the round two pick, built on a significant situational upgrade. His new offense ranked ninth in neutral passing rate last year, compared to his old offense’s 15th-ranked mark, and that gap could widen further with continued quarterback development, a new star receiver alongside him, and a tougher schedule that should force more passing.”

“Even in a “down” season, Brown topped 1,000 yards receiving on a run-first offense and scored seven touchdowns. In ESPN’s open score and PFF’s receiving grade — both metrics that seek to evaluate a wide receiver’s performance even if he’s not targeted on a passing play — Brown ranked No. 9 and No. 13 out of over a hundred wideouts.”

“Getting AJ Brown, who was the WR5 over the final seven games of 2025, cannot hurt Maye. All three Ballers think he is a receiver who could truly finish as the WR1 overall.”

“Brown gives Drake Maye the true alpha this offense needed. Now he climbed into Maye's draft pocket, and while he can still pay off pick 16, the price feels closer to stacking tax than pure value.”

“Andrew Erickson isn't worried about A.J. Brown's "down" season. He believes it created a buying opportunity. Despite modest touchdown totals last year, Brown still produced at a high level while commanding an elite target share. Erickson expects Josh McDaniels to feature Brown as the unquestioned focal point of New England's passing attack. If that happens, Brown could easily return to top-three fantasy wide receiver production.”

“A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert each missed just one game due to injury. Brown has since been traded.”

“Repeating a first-place ranking in both categories is unlikely, and it will be even more challenging if the offensive line can't take a step forward in protecting Maye, even with A.J. Brown added to the receiver room.”

“Since entering the league in 2019, Brown has consistently demonstrated an ability to rack up massive yards after the catch (YAC) numbers, but has never been a true volume-based receiver. If one were to remove his totals for the 2023 season (which was an outlier), Brown averaged fewer than 70 receptions per season.”

“The analysts believe fantasy managers may be underestimating just how much upside exists in A.J. Brown's new situation. Derek Brown pointed to improvements in offensive philosophy and red-zone passing opportunities as reasons for optimism, and there was confidence that Brown remains one of the league's premier target earners.”

“In a putrid Eagles' passing attack last season, Brown was ninth in target share, 13th in air yards and eighth in red-zone target share. Now he moves to a team with an ascending passing quarterback and an offense that targets its receivers downfield.”