Jaylen Warren
vs Rome Odunze

“Since being thrust into the limelight due to Rico Dowdle ‘s lingering toe injury, Warren has been fantastic, culminating in 198 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns yesterday. Even with modest rushing attempts, Warren’s usage on checkdowns and screen passes greatly inflates his weekly point floor, and he should be viewed as a low-end RB1 moving forward. Warren won’t catch an 80-yard touchdown every week, but his big-play ability makes him a strong buy-high option.”

“Jaylen Warren should continue to operate as the lead back and take the majority of the snaps, but the Steelers can feel much more confident when Dowdle is out there giving Warren a break.”

“Even with Rico Dowdle returning, Warren has simply been too good to take off the field. He’s rushed for at least 90 yards in three straight games while continuing to make an impact as a receiver. I expect Warren to remain the clear lead back in Pittsburgh, with something closer to a 65-35 split in his favor rather than the 50-50 committee we saw earlier in the season.”

“In the three games without Dowdle, Warren has 490 total yards and two scores, further cementing Dowdle as a change-of-pace guy and handcuff.”

“Aaron Rodgers loves a checkdown, and Warren is the beneficiary. His 87 receiving yards in week five make him the current leading receiver on the team (230), ahead of DK Metcalf (225), who totaled just 12 on Sunday. Turnovers Tell the Story in Seattle The Seahawks and 49ers scored 61 points and gave the ball away seven times between them.”

“Jaylen Warren makes me pause before automatically taking Swift’s discount.”

““ Jaylen Warren has been a great RB1 for the Steelers the last 2 weeks with 17 carries each week, 220 total rushing yards, and 6.5 yards/attempt. The uptick in production is due to Rico Dowdle being out with various toe injuries. Warren is currently at his highest value and is a great trade-high candidate due to the production, running back injuries across the league, and the need for owners to move him before Dowdle returns and Pittsburgh becomes a full-blown committee again (possibly this week, but probably in the next few weeks).”

“Odunze is the WR61 in fantasy points per game with only one outing this season with at least double-digit PPR points. Odunze has a 15.4% target share with 1.67 YPRR, four red zone targets, seven deep targets, and a 17.5% first-read share. Christian Gonzalez has followed DK Metcalf , Garrett Wilson , and Jaxon Smith-Njigba this season on 65.4-86.4% of their routes.”

“Rome Odunze led the team in routes but was targeted on just 9% of them.”

“According to Mando’s Targets Per Route Run report , Odunze has a 17.2% TPRR, which is 63rd among qualified receivers and below the position average. Luther Burden and Colston Loveland are also getting their share, so Odunze is more of a big-play option than a volume one. However, he is creating separation, which we love to see, so I am predicting an uptick in his utilization.”

“Per Next Gen Stats…Odunze led the team in routes (31), catches (6, tied with Colston Loveland) and yards (94) for his best outing of the young season. He doesn’t lead the team in targets or catches this season, but does lead in yards (233) and air yards share (35.9%). Luther Burden caught 4 of 6 official targets (7 true) for 63 yards and carried once for 11 yards (a 17.6% official/18.4% adjusted target share.”

“Odunze has only a 13.3% target share with 1.72 YPRR, two red zone targets, five deep targets, and a 13.1% first-read share. This week, he faces a Jets’ secondary that has the fifth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (65.4%). Against two-high, Odunze’s target-per-route run rate drops from 18% to 14%, and his yards per route run dips from 2.00 to 1.38.”

“Rome Odunze has devolved into the “sacrificial X” for the Bears. He’s behind Luther Burden III and (shocker) Kalif Raymond in targets. I still have hope for him and Colston Loveland , but it’s quickly fading.”

“On top of that, Odunze has played 79.8% of his snaps out wide, where he will lock up with Mitchell and Woolen. Factoring all of that in, Odunze is a touchdown-dependent WR4/FLEX. Kalif Raymond Raymond still is not going away.”