Jaylen Waddle
vs D'Andre Swift

“In year six with Bo Nix at QB, Waddle is back in a similar role. Waddle’s 9.6 air yards per target ranks 50th out of 73 qualified receivers, which makes sense when you factor in that Nix is dead last in air yards per attempt (6.0 AY/Att). Waddle’s targets have gone down in four consecutive weeks, and now he faces the Seahawks, who are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game.”

“Jaylen Waddle caught two of his five targets for 19 scoreless yards and added a nine-yard run. Courtland Sutton salvaged his day with a touchdown reception, adding to two catches for 18 yards. Waddle isn’t a no-brainer starter, but probably remains in the WR3 mix in 12-team leagues for most managers during bye weeks.”

“Nix/Waddle is a bet on DEN getting its TDs through the air, and I would keep that as a secondary tournament build.”

“Jaylen Waddle was the prince who was promised to solve all of Denver’s offensive issues and to finally be the joker that Sean Payton craved for the Broncos. Unfortunately, over four games, he has as many weekly finishes below 5.5 half-PPR points as he does above 12.0. half-PPR points While it can be frustrating to see that kind of return from Waddle, it’s abundantly clear when you look at the film and the stats that this isn’t on him.”

“This year, we have JK Dobbins swearing to the old gods and new that he will play 17 games, and a rookie RB Jonah Coleman getting rave reviews in camp (ready to step in when Dobbins does inevitably get hurt); Jaylen Waddle is exactly what this team needs offensively , offering up YAC opportunities, strong route running in the short + intermediate part of the field, and a level of improvisation with Nix that Franklin + Mimms just weren’t able to offer.”

“Waddle should get a wonderful infusion of volume this season, moving from an offense that was 29th in neutral passing rate to one that was fourth in that metric last season.”

“Now the alpha receiver for the Broncos, Waddle will bring his electric route-running to an offense that thrives upon precision and isn’t afraid to sling it. Fantasy managers can look for a spike in Waddle’s yards per route run and target rate, as Courtland Sutton draws away defensive attention downfield.”

“Swift will continue to be a fringe RB1 moving forward, especially with Kyle Monangai set to miss time with a thumb injury and a case of turf toe. All hail King Swift! That’s it for this week, FootClan.”

“Still, Swift’s ECR ranking of RB13 is a bit too rich for me. He’s a fine back and as consistent as they come, but Swift has never finished that high positionally in his six NFL seasons.”

“Swift had the better role and scored 17.7 half-PPR points per game with 17.75 expected half-PPR points per game, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0. Monangai averaged 9.77 half-PPR points per game and 7.29 expected half-PPR points per game. According to Jahnke, Swift had a 61.1% snap share versus 38.9% for Monangai over the first six drives, but Swift lost a fumble on the sixth drive.”

“Among 43 qualifying backs, Swift is eighth in yards after contact per attempt and tenth in missed tackle rate. Swift has 14 of the team’s 20 running back red zone carries while playing 64.1% of the snaps with a 51.4% rushing share, a 35.7% route share, and a 9.2% target share. Swift should have another strong stat line this week against a Jets’ run defense that has allowed the second-highest rushing success rate, the tenth-most yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.”

“Among 43 qualifying backs, Swift ranks sixth in yards after contact per attempt and eighth in missed tackle rate. Swift should have success again this week. Philly has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest missed tackle rate.”

““ D’Andre Swift’s fantasy outlook is usually pretty rosy with the potent Bears’ offense and a weaker defensive opponent, but not this week. The injuries to Caleb Williams and backup Tyson Bagent have put a dark cloud over the Windy City. Chicago might have to go with veteran Case Keenum against a stout Eagles’ defense, led by their star linemen Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter .”

“D’Andre Swift has one of the largest deltas (12%) in his TPRR and his True Target Rate (factoring in pass blocks).”