Jalen Hurts vs Brian Thomas

“David Montgomery, Tyler Allgeier, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Kareem Hunt, Jalen Hurts – 8 Jordan Love is the only QB in the last decade to:”

“He is also connected to Jalen Hurts , who many doubt as a passer”

“180.8 | WR70 While he missed eight games last season with a toe injury, Purdy was the QB6 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 19.7 fantasy points per contest, a higher average than Jalen Hurts (18.7) and Dak Prescott (18.5)”

“Of the top-10 scorers overall in 2025, only Allen, Nix, and Jalen Hurts were selected as top-10 picks.”

“Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) One of the most severely underrated quarterbacks heading into the 2026 NFL season is Jalen Hurts.”

“For Hurts to be a midrange QB1 or better, he’ll have to put up big rushing numbers, and we saw his rushing numbers decline last year. After four straight years of double-digit TD runs, with an average of 13 rushing touchdowns a season over that stretch, Hurts had eight TD runs last year. The Eagles had faithfully used the “tush push” every time they got inside the opponent’s 2-yard line in recent years.”

“At his midrange QB1 price, Hurts has to deliver significant rushing value to give you a satisfying return on investment. Because let’s face it: Hurts has been a pretty average passer. Hurts has never had a 4,000-yard passing season.”

“Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) One analyst has been aggressively targeting Hurts this year, a name that generates little draft-day excitement, which is exactly what makes him appealing. He’s currently being drafted in the QB10-to-QB11 range in single-quarterback leagues, worse than his consensus QB6 ranking, with reports of him falling as far as QB9 or 15 spots past his listed ADP in real drafts.”

“It is reasonable to say that Hurts probably will not be a top-three guy moving forward with the decrease in rushing, but we are betting on his rushing TDs to come back up past double digits and put him in a position to score more fantasy points. Right now his ADP is fair, and you can be comfortable taking him in the sixth round.”

“Unfortunately, Hurts averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game last year, posting an average below 20.8 for the first time in his career as the full-time starter despite totaling a career-high 25 passing touchdowns. However, Hurts’ rushing production regressed, totaling single-digit rushing touchdowns for the first time since his rookie season.”

“Jalen Hurts lost A.J. Brown , but the upgrade at play-caller could be huge. Kevin Patullo was one of the worst offensive coordinators in recent memory.”

“The clearest path to a bounce back is rushing volume: Hurts topped 600 rushing yards in each of the two seasons before last year, then dropped to 421, and his rushing touchdown total fell to eight after previously reaching double digits.”

“The target competition is stiffer now, with Jakobi Meyers joining the team midway through the 2025 season and Parker Washington looking like a breakout star late in the year. The Jags say two-way player Travis Hunter will be deployed primarily as a cornerback this year, but he’s a potential wild card as a target thief. This just doesn’t seem like an ecosystem that sets up well for a Brian Thomas Jr. bounce-back.”

“Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC) | ADP: 74.0 (WR30) Brian Thomas Jr. had an electrifying rookie campaign. He finished as the WR4 in half-PPR points (240.5) and was tied for the WR11 in half-PPR points per game (14.1) among those who played at least eight games in 2024.”

“I do not see a single player in the Jaguars’ receiving room with higher upside than Brian Thomas Jr .”

“It's hard to trust Brian Thomas Jr. as a WR2 in PPR leagues. In situations where Meyers was on the field for the Jaguars last season, Thomas's target share was third on the team at under 17%, and he only caught 18 out of 30 targets for 287 yards and scored once.”

“You have the absolute letdown of 2025, Brian Thomas Jr., who basically played no part in the Jags' success last year. He disappeared despite the team's success, ending as the WR44.”

“Josh Cameron is a big downfield weapon who has the potential to develop into a valuable receiver, especially if Brian Thomas Jr. isn't part of the team's long-term plans.”

“Brian Thomas Jr. was playing through wrist, shoulder, and ankle injuries for much of the 2025 season, which severely impacted his production. We could certainly see the rookie version of Thomas again.”

“The talent that made BTJ a breakout star still exists, but his connection with Trevor Lawrence never consistently clicked in Liam Coen's system. Until Jacksonville proves willing to feature him more prominently again, Thomas profiles as more of a volatile upside WR3/4 than the ascending alpha many expected entering 2025.”

“Brian Thomas Jr.'s sophomore season was a major disappointment after the lofty expectations created by his explosive rookie campaign. Injuries constantly interrupted his momentum, while Jacksonville's offense increasingly funneled targets toward players like Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Brenton Strange.”

“Puka Nacua (ADP ~230, finished WR5 as a rookie) and Brian Thomas Jr. (ADP ~110, finished WR3) are the modern proof points. But pointing to them ex post does not make them findable ex ante – the average outcome at their ADP was still a miss.”

“If you are stuck holding in dynasty, there is no point moving Thomas. He could/must bounce back to some degree. Plus, with last year's trade talks, there is a world where he could get a fresh start.”

“The Jaguars boast Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter as their top three wide receivers, and Brenton Strange as a perfectly cromulent pass-catching tight end.”