Derrick Henry vs Bijan Robinson

“Derrick Henry is entering his late-career danger zone, and the depth behind him is paper-thin.”

“Every season fantasy managers wonder whether Derrick Henry is finally slowing down. Jake Ciely isn't buying it. His reasoning is simple. Henry's draft cost continues to fall even though his production hasn't. Ciely also pointed out that Henry's fantasy scoring remains remarkably consistent regardless of game script, making him one of the safest veteran running backs available. At his current ADP, he's comfortable betting on Henry one more time.”

“While some won't draft Henry for fear his age makes him an injury risk, the veteran has played in at least 15 games in all but one year of his career, including 17 contests in three consecutive seasons. He was RB8 last year, averaging 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game despite totaling only 15 receptions, 18 fewer than any other running back to finish top 20.”

“If Lamar Jackson can bounce back, Henry could inch back closer to his 2024 production (RB4 in fantasy points per game). He's at worst a low-end RB1 with top-five upside.”

“Last year was another impressive year for Derrick Henry. He didn't show any signs of slowing down with 307 rushing attempts, 1,595 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns, and an RB8 finish in fantasy points per game.”

“For all of his accolades as the league's most physical runner, Henry is a non-factor in Baltimore's passing game. With 20 or fewer receptions in eight of Henry's 10 NFL seasons, a sudden shift turning him into the next Christian McCaffrey or Jahmyr Gibbs is not envisioned.”

“The Ravens run first and do everything else second, and they run through Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, leaving few rush attempts for Randall.”

“Derrick Henry's 30.2 Sleeper ADP is a classic case of dynasty anxiety ruining redraft logic. Managers see his age and automatically assume a total collapse, completely ignoring the fact he ran for 1,500+ yards and 16 touchdowns last season. Henry remains the ultimate hammer in a Baltimore Ravens offense that completely sanitizes his negative game scripts. He retains a locked-in monopoly on goal-line touches and high-value red-zone opportunities.”

“At the end of the day, drafting Henry is a bet that he can continue to stiff-arm Father Time and post the best rushing season of the last two decades for a player this old. But there are other elite-upside players at his ADP without the red flags, so the juice is not worth the squeeze.”

“The issue with Henry is that, coming off a season with fewer than one reception per game, he needs to be absolutely dominant on the ground to provide elite fantasy value. And in recent history, the list of dominant rushing seasons by players 32 or older is essentially nonexistent.”

“Derrick Henry is just one representative of a simple site-wide trend: ESPN drafters love running backs compared to the expert consensus. His positional ECR is RB13; his ESPN ADP is RB10, where experts see King Henry as a high-end RB2, ESPN drafters still view him as a top-10 option.”

“That might be the right move and use that "leftover" $12 on a more impactful player, such as moving from Derrick Henry to Jahmyr Gibbs.”

“The receiving game is where Robinson made huge strides last season. After 487 and 431 yards receiving to open his career, Robinson accrued 820 yards through the air last season. After 24 air yards in 2023 and -21 air yards in 2024, Robinson had 101 air yards last season.”

“Robinson was sensational in his third season, racking up a league-high 2,298 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns on 366 touches. He saved his best for fantasy gamers to end the season, going bonkers in the fantasy postseason. In Week 15, Robinson racked up 175 total yards and a score on 27 touches. In Week 16, he had 168 yards and a score on 23 touches. In Week 17, he posted 229 yards and 2 touchdowns on 27 touches.”

“Robinson hasn't missed a game since he entered the NFL and led the league in yards from scrimmage last season with 2,298. He ranked second among running backs in receiving yards, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. The biggest knock against Robinson is that we saw many short-yardage carries go to Tyler Allgeier in the red zone, but we no longer have to worry about that now that Allgeier is in Arizona.”

“Last year's PPR RB2 in fantasy points per game, and now free from Tyler Allgeier, Bijan Robinson feels primed to take a big step forward in 2026. Robinson led the league in missed tackles forced (75), with 27 more than any other player, while also ranking in the top five in rushing yards, explosive run rate and yards per carry, while topping the league in yards after contact per attempt (3.06). Where Robinson can take the leap is simple — touchdowns. Robinson scored only seven rushing touchdowns, which resulted in the lowest touchdown rate (2.4%) among the top seven running backs in fantasy.”

“Robinson will no longer have to contend with Tyler Allgeier for snaps; instead, he gets the far less imposing Brian Robinson Jr. as the RB2. The runway is wide open for Bijan to capture even more redzone opportunities without Allgeier in the fold.”

“Allgeier is familiar with backing up an elite running back prospect, as he shared time with Bijan Robinson in Atlanta for three seasons.”

“Bijan Robinson is the top taken player according to Yahoo's mock auction data. He is projected to have a value of $62, meaning Yahoo thinks $62 is a spot-on price for what his stats are projected to be. But Bijan is going for an average auction value of $71.4. That's over 15% higher than his projection!”

“Where Robinson can take the leap is simple — touchdowns. Robinson scored only seven rushing touchdowns, which resulted in the lowest touchdown rate (2.4%) among the top seven running backs in fantasy.”

“Gainwell ranked fourth among all backs in receptions in 2025, trailing only the dual-threat elites of Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.”

“Bijan Robinson got the nod at 1.01 here. Worm pointed directly to Atlanta's new play caller and Robinson's elite talent profile as the deciding factors. Even in a three-receiver league where someone like Ja'Marr Chase could easily justify the top spot, Robinson's combination of workload and explosiveness ultimately won out.”

“Atlanta's coaching changes could finally unlock the every-down role fantasy managers have been waiting for. Robinson has already produced elite numbers despite sharing goal-line work in previous seasons. If that usage shifts fully in his favor, he could challenge for the overall RB1 finish in fantasy football.”

“Bijan Robinson's fifth-year option is valued at $11.3 million and has not yet been exercised as of March 21, 2026.”