Courtland Sutton
vs Justin Herbert

“Courtland Sutton is borderline droppable in shallower redraft leagues at this point. Maybe that’s a hair dramatic, but look at what he’s done thus far. He’s averaging a mere 4.1 half-PPR points per game and is averaging fewer yards per target than Jaylen Waddle , Pat Bryant and RJ Harvey .”

“Without consistent volume, Sutton will need to find a niche role as a TD-merchant to stay relevant. After back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons, it’s suddenly hard to trust Sutton as anything more than risky WR3/flex.”

“Courtland Sutton is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Bo Nix and Sean Payton in Denver, but his production could take a step back this season.”

“The Broncos needed a second option behind Courtland Sutton in the wide receiver room. Instead, they elected to put substantial draft capital into trading for Jaylen Waddle, who arguably is their No. 1 WR moving forward. Sutton has largely kept himself fantasy-relevant through touchdowns over the last few years, with 25 over the last three seasons, the sixth-most in that period. Should Waddle eat into those opportunities, it could prove tricky for Sutton to return value at this price.”

“Sutton needs to show that sharing is caring. Denver needed another explosive option, but they still need a player who can win physically. Sutton should benefit from a better ecosystem, as Waddle can pull coverage away from him and create more space for the throws Sutton already wins on, though he may lose some raw target ceiling while the quality of his looks will improve.”

“Courtland Sutton is a sell-high candidate now that Jaylen Waddle has arrived in Denver to command the majority of target shares in Sean Payton's offense. While Sutton has been a reliable staple, he is entering his age-31 season with a bloated contract that makes him a likely cap casualty or trade piece in the near future.”

“Even so, Herbert has been pressured on 46.9% of his dropbacks (30th) and has taken a hit on a league-high 20.6% of them. Even when kept clean, Herbert and this passing game are broken. He has the league's lowest rating without pressure (71.5), completing 65.2% of his passes (30th) for 6.7 Y/A (25th), with a league-high 6.5% interception rate.”

“Herbert has been pressured 82 times this season, behind only Tyler Shough and Bryce Young (on far fewer pass attempts). Even with all this considered, we have too much historical data to suggest Justin Herbert is a tremendous real-life quarterback and an above-average fantasy quarterback. I still have to believe he’s better than any waiver wire option, so I’m holding and keeping the faith.”

“Four games into the season, Justin Herbert ranks as the QB34 in PPG. Cam Ward and Geno Smith have more fantasy points than Herbert, as does Caleb Williams, who has missed the last two games. On paper, it doesn’t look like it is going to get any better any time soon.”

“QB Justin Herbert had his best game of the season and it wasn’t even all that good. His regression this season is a big part of why Los Angeles is falling short of expectations. Losing former DC Jesse Minter to the Ravens’ head job is a factor as well.”

“Among 31 qualifying passers, Herbert has the 14th-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-fewest fantasy points per dropback, the eighth-lowest passing success rate, and the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback. I don’t see this being the week that Herbert turns things around against this vaunted Seattle pass defense. Seattle has allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passing success rate, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per dropback.”

“SIT Justin Herbert, Chargers Okay, enough is enough. I know Herbert’s got the arm talent, and I know he’s been a steady QB1 for stretches, but I can’t in good conscience send him out there against Seattle this week. The Seahawks have been an ugly matchup for opposing quarterbacks, and Herbert’s own implied team total sits at just 18.25, which is dead last among the quarterbacks in fantasy this week.”

“Over the last two weeks, Justin Herbert has dropped back 69 times, and Mitchell leads all Chargers backs with 22 routes; Omarion Hampton is third on his own team at 15, with three targets on the season . Mitchell has also run 18 routes lined up at wide receiver this year, second among all RBs behind only Christian McCaffrey (see Analysis & Hype above). And here's the ugly-beautiful part: Herbert is 1-for-12 with three picks on throws 20+ yards downfield, which means the checkdown is the only part of this offense currently functioning.”

“Herbert has one QB1 scoring week over his past 10 games. It is hard to bank on that flipping here, so Herbert stays in the pile of back-end QB2 options . Seattle allowed 3 passing touchdowns to Marcus Mariota on Sunday, but they still allow only 5.9 yards per pass attempt and a 61.3% completion rate for 183 yards.”

“This offense is a disaster: QB Justin Herbert is playing the worst ball of his career, this offensive line isn’t any better than it was a year ago even with Los Angeles’ tackles back, and this defense isn’t the same without Jesse Minter leading it. The Chargers need to do something different, and fast. But with a meat grinder of an upcoming schedule, the road isn’t getting any easier.”

“Three weeks in, Herbert is averaging just 209 passing yards per game, has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3:4, and has yet to top 13.5 fantasy points in a game. His 73.4 passer rating ranks 31 out of 32 starting quarterbacks. You don’t want to know where he ranks, including among backup quarterbacks who have played enough to qualify.”

“Los Angeles's inability to protect Justin Herbert could be problematic this week.”