Brian Thomas
vs Joe Burrow

“On Thin Ice: David Montgomery (98%), Blake Corum (87%), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (85%) WIDE RECEIVERS Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville (82% rostered) Brian Thomas is below league-average in snap share, total routes run, yards per target, yards per reception, yards after catch per reception, yards after contact per reception, explosive catch rate, and yards per target over expectation. The only statistic that he’s well above league average in is drop rate. Get in on the fun and drop him, too.”

“Thomas has become a spare part in the Jacksonville offense. His snap shares in the Jaguars’ first three games: 35.1%, 54.2% and 39.0%. Thomas hasn’t topped 40 yards in any of those games, and on Sunday he had 1-8-0 on one target.”

“Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC) Brian Thomas had a majorly disappointing, injury-affected sophomore campaign, finishing as fantasy football WR43 overall and WR47 in PPG across 14 games. He averaged 8.2 half-PPR PPG on an 18% target share with 50.5 receiving yards/game, 3 total TDs, and just 7 red-zone targets.”

“Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated names Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. as one player to watch in training camp as a "swing factor" after a productive rookie season in 2024 before struggling last season. According to Breer, Jacksonville never considered "selling low" on Thomas after his sophomore slump, and Thomas has had a "constant presence" at the team's facility this offseason and is spending as much time as possible with QB Trevor Lawrence.”

“It's hard to trust Brian Thomas Jr. as a WR2 in PPR leagues. In situations where Meyers was on the field for the Jaguars last season, Thomas's target share was third on the team at under 17%, and he only caught 18 out of 30 targets for 287 yards and scored once.”

“As a rookie, Thomas had 1,292 yards, 87 receptions and 10 touchdowns. This led to a WR4 finish on the season and a second-round pick in redraft leagues the following season. Thomas then repaid ambitious fantasy managers with a WR44 performance in points per game in 2025.”

“Thomas, 23, posted 1,282 receiving yards as a rookie but saw his production drop significantly the following season. That was partially due to a few injuries that sidelined him for three games and lingered into the offseason.”

“Jakobi Meyers feels Thomas's football IQ is something that gets overlooked in his game, and believes the longer he's around the game and in his offense, the more he's going to continue to get better and better.”

“Burrow is projected for around 19.6 points in an offense that’s throwing the ball 36-plus times a game. When a quarterback is that entrenched as the engine of his offense, a tough matchup on paper isn’t enough to scare me off. Burrow’s also sitting in a game with a 27-point implied team total for Cincinnati, which tells me the market expects Cincinnati to move the ball regardless of what Jacksonville’s defensive numbers say.”

“Burrow had an underwhelming opener, but he’s tallied 489 passing yards (244.5 per game), 7.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), five passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two subsequent contests, scoring 19.88 DraftKings points per game and 19.88 FanDuel points per game in the last two weeks. The Bengals lost a shootout last week, and the Jaguars have the firepower to push Burrow into a ceiling performance through the air. His top passing-game weapon will be featured in the core studs.”

“Joe Burrow may not be a must-start this week, but Chase Brown , Ja’Marr Chase , and Tee Higgins are all auto-starts.”

“According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 33 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, Burrow ranks: 13th in passing yards per game (230.5) 19th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.14 ANY/A) Tied for 14th in passing touchdowns (three) 10th in expected passing touchdowns (3.5) 21st in rushing yards per game (9.5) Interestingly, the Bengals are just fifth in pass rate over expected (6.3% PROE) this year. That’s still pass-happy, but Cincinnati tied for first in PROE (7.9%) from 2023 through 2025. Their defense is better, and the washed-up, Aaron Rodgers -led Steelers are unlikely to push Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense into a shootout.”

“Joe Burrow nearly gifted Tampa Bay a pick-six, the Buccaneers heavily guarded Chase, and Burrow simply could not connect with his WR1. That extra attention also opened things up elsewhere: TE Mike Gesicki finished with five catches for 78 yards and a TD as Tampa Bay focused on containing Chase and Tee Higgins . Look, that does not completely let Chase off the hook.”

“Joe Burrow’s health has been a concern in recent years, but I’ll bank on him playing a full season with one of the easiest schedules in football. I believe 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns are more than doable.”

“But if Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who missed nine games last season, enjoys a season of good health, McPherson should have his fair share of FG and PAT opportunities.”

“When Joe Burrow was healthy, he was a top-three quarterback last season”

“The pivot to more under-center passing won’t be as natural and certainly might not be anywhere near as successful for the Bengals, because Burrow clearly isn’t as comfortable and doesn’t perform as well. In fact, if we go back the last three years, Burrow’s under-center dropbacks average just 3.6 air yards, which ranked dead last: #69 out of 69 qualifying QBs. His time to throw of 2.81 seconds was the #5 fastest out of 69 QBs, and he threw just 17% of passes 10+ yards downfield, also ranking dead last.”

“Zac Taylor wants the Bengals to play more from under center in 2026. Unfortunately, Joe Burrow under center is precisely where this offense struggles most, which is why the Bengals haven't used it often of late. How much the Bengals choose to pivot to under-center passing and how much Burrow can improve on these dropbacks might have a large impact on their fortunes in 2026.”

“Overvalued: Joe Burrow, Quarterback (QB4, Pick 59 OVR) Now, this isn’t to say that I don’t like Joe Burrow, or that I don’t think that Joe Burrow is a talented player; I just think that Joe Burrow is capped insofar as he doesn’t rush at all, and the Bengals’ offensive line isn’t strong enough for him to be a consistent top-four player without the rushing.”

“Of the top-10 quarterbacks based on LTV, Burrow is the one quarterback with little to no rushing upside, making him the quarterback I would want to trade away.”