Bucky Irving vs Patrick Mahomes

“Irving also has to deal with the arrival of Kenneth Gainwell, who signed a two-year deal with Tampa Bay. Gainwell has garnered plenty of praise this offseason, with head coach Todd Bowles recently saying Gainwell is the 1b to Irving's 1a.”

“At RB2 prices, I still think he has arguably a better upside case than anyone in this range. With Rachaad White now gone, Irving could have an elite fantasy floor in PPR formats, provided he can stay healthy. The prices have dropped far enough that he is now a clear buy-low target.”

“Bucky Irving has had no shortage of injuries through his first two NFL seasons, most notably a shoulder injury last September that didn't recover as planned. He underwent shoulder surgery this offseason and is expected to be back without limitations by training camp; not the ideal situation, but it could be much worse.”

“After finishing his rookie season as the RB13, averaging 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game, Irving regressed last year and struggled to stay healthy, missing seven contests. Irving averaged two fewer yards per rushing attempt and 0.28 fewer fantasy points per touch last year compared to his rookie season.”

“Irving's 2025 efficiency collapse with just 3.4 yards per carry and limited explosive plays makes it even harder to project him as a true lead back. And he is coming off shoulder surgery and remains limited in offseason work.”

“Bucky Irving is one of the most overpriced picks on Sleeper. At his fantasy football ADP (26 overall), you are paying premium draft capital for a player that experts rank 51st overall. This massive 25-pick gap reflects how much the market is chasing his rookie-year highlights instead of his current reality.”

“Irving has had a substantial list of injuries that he has dealt with during his short career, so I wouldn't be surprised if Gainwell is leading the backfield some weeks in 2026.”

“Even during what was considered a disappointing campaign, Irving averaged more than 20 touches per game. When he returned from injury, Tampa Bay immediately restored him to a featured role rather than easing him back into the lineup.”

“Irving's decline in production coincided with both injuries and deteriorating offensive line play. Tampa Bay's run-blocking metrics fell dramatically compared to the previous season, which coincided with significant drops in Irving's efficiency metrics.”

“Bucky Irving has dealt with a number of injuries in his short career with a foot sprain and a shoulder/AC joint sprain last year. Rewinding to 2024, he also dealt with hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues.”

“Currently, Bucky Irving is the main back, despite not participating in practice and recovering from last season's injury. I wish Irving the best as a bright, young athletic star, but something isn't right, and his availability is a real concern.”

“Irving wasn't trusted with a single attempt inside the 5-yard line last season and had only 18 red-zone rush attempts — three fewer than Sean Tucker.”

“Mahomes' ACL and LCL tears bring by far his most notable adversity since his stratospheric QB1 debut in Kansas City. The three-time Super Bowl MVP is trending toward being cleared for 11-on-11 drills by the outset of camp.”

“Patrick Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee late in the Chiefs' Week 15 loss to the Chargers in mid-December, and even if able to return for Week 1, his mobility could be compromised. Through eight weeks of 2025, he was QB1 in fantasy scoring at 25 points per game, fueled in part by 280 rushing yards and four TD runs, but finished the year tied for QB2 in fantasy points per game.”

“Mahomes is coming into the season recovering from an ACL injury, and Kansas City is as vulnerable as at any time in the Patrick Mahomes era.”

“Mahomes finished as the QB11 overall in 2025 while playing in only 14 games due to a week 15 ACL tear that ended his season. Prior to his season ending, Mahomes was the QB2 in fantasy points per game.”

“Patrick Mahomes has been working back from an ACL and LCL injury this offseason after getting injured 14 games into the season. Kansas City G Trey Smith raved about Mahomes' competitive nature as he's attacked rehab, noting "he's attacked rehab every single day with everything he's got."”

“Mahomes is ranked QB17, projected for 350.6 fantasy points, but the issue is that Mahomes is priced as if the name carries more weekly fantasy ceiling than the projections show. At ADP 92, we are paying for immediate production while also needing the Chiefs' offense to return to a true fantasy ceiling environment, but Mahomes is working back from ACL and LCL tears and is reportedly targeting Week 1.”

“Patrick Mahomes makes his return from ACL and LCL tears.”

“Despite suffering a significant knee injury at the end of last year, Mahomes has participated in offseason workouts, putting him on pace to play in Week 1. Last year, the superstar was quietly one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy football despite never having a healthy receiving corps. He was the QB2 over the first 13 weeks, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game, totaling 23.1 or more in eight of 12 contests.”

“Mahomes has finished outside of the top 10 at the position in consecutive years, is recovering from a late-season ACL/LCL tear in his left knee and his supporting cast in Kansas City carries a litany of question marks that gives me plenty of pause. Even the most bullish of Mahomes supporters project a significant dip in his rushing totals for 2026, with his mobility still returning from rehab.”

“Chiefs HC Andy Reid doesn't believe QB Patrick Mahomes' injury will have a big impact on the team going forward and noted that Mahomes will be able to participate in certain activities as he continues to progress in rehab. Reid said, "I think we'll be OK there as we go forward . . . . It looks like he's going to be able to do some things during camp."”

“Mahomes' success in fantasy leagues last season was largely driven by his legs. In just 14 games, Mahomes set career highs in rushing yards per game (30.1) and rushing touchdowns (five), with his rushing production making up 24.4% of his fantasy scoring. Expecting him to duplicate a career year on the ground after knee surgery would be foolish.”

“Mahomes is entering his age-31 season and is recovering from the major knee injury (including an ACL tear) which ended his 2025 campaign. The Chiefs are certainly confident a full recovery can take place; the team has made a record-breaking upfront commitment in terms of guarantees (over $230MM) and in overall AAV ($63.1MM).”