Puka Nacua vs Jonathan Taylor

“Puka Nacua (ADP ~230, finished WR5 as a rookie) and Brian Thomas Jr. are the modern proof points. But pointing to them ex post does not make them findable ex ante – the average outcome at their ADP was still a miss.”

“A potential Puka Nacua Rams extension is covered in this week's mailbag.”

“Even while the Rams shift offensive philosophy and use more heavy sets with multiple tight ends, Nacua continues to eat. It's rare to see a player of Nacua's caliber receive such small compensation, with his cap hit for 2026 at $1,204,244 compared to Justin Jefferson's $38,987,600.”

“Stafford is throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, so it is not shocking that he was so efficient last season. But we have also seen him be less efficient in this system in the very recent past.”

“Puka Nacua proved to be an elite high-volume target, leading the NFL with 129 receptions and averaging 107.2 yards per game while earning first-team All-Pro honors.”

“Nacua is coming off a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns, which, until 2025, had been the only area of his game that lacked. Perhaps with an improving defense, the Rams don't go quite as pass-heavy this year, but Sean McVay has nearly always been aggressive, and Nacua deserves to be a top-five pick while Matthew Stafford is healthy.”

“Off the field, Puka Nacua hasn't had a great offseason, and the Rams seem slightly hesitant to extend him, with reports suggesting that's not in their immediate plans, despite Nacua being extension-eligible and watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the market. This sets Nacua up for what should be a massive prove-it year, both on and off the field.”

“Most of the players from the last few rounds of your draft won't be on your roster at the end unless you hit on a 2023 Puka Nacua or 2025 Alec Pierce or another similar breakout story.”

“With his declining ability and playing alongside Puka Nacua, he's not going to rack up targets like a usual fantasy WR1.”

“L.A. also has Turner, Byron Young, Puka Nacua, Steve Avila, Warren McClendon.”

“A record-setting extension for the Rams wide receiver is seen as a foregone conclusion, though Nacua's off-field decision-making could factor into the terms of his potential future extension and the Rams may decide there's something they need to see from Nacua before they can feel comfortable signing him long-term.”

“Even with one missed game last year, Nacua delivered on that momentum, setting new career highs with 129 receptions (most in the NFL), 1,715 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns.”

“Jonathan Taylor was absolutely dominant for the first half of last season. According to teams synced with our FantasyPros tools, the Colts back led all players in playoff advance rate at 66.8%. Simply drafting Taylor gave you a two-in-three chance of making the playoffs.”

“Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in snap share last season (89%) and ranked second in opportunity share (84%). Without an injury, he isn't coming off the field.”

“Taylor is heading into a contract year, likely his last massive one, after turning 27 this offseason. He'll be motivated, have his quarterback returning, who might need to lean on the run game more, and once again has virtually no competition for touches.”

“Jonathan Taylor was absolutely dominant for the first half of last season, leading all players in playoff advance rate at 66.8%. However, from Week 12 onwards, he was the RB21, with an explosive run rate of 0.7% (41st).”

“Taylor is heading into a contract year, likely his last massive one, after turning 27 this offseason. He'll be motivated, have his quarterback returning, who might need to lean on the run game more, and once again has virtually no competition for touches. There's a very real world where Taylor is a top-two back this season.”

“Jonathan Taylor was absolutely dominant for the first half of last season. Had Daniel Jones not gotten injured, Taylor most likely could have stayed effective throughout the whole season.”

“Taylor was the fantasy RB4 in points per game, but from Week 12 onwards, he was the RB21, with an explosive run rate of 0.7% (41st) and ranking 36th in yards after contact, with just three rushing touchdowns.”

“If you had a tier of running backs with Jonathan Taylor and Omarion Hampton, but you can get Hampton cheaper, you'll then need to determine whether the difference moves you more toward targeting someone like Hampton or if the cost justifies taking Taylor.”

“They noted how dramatically his fantasy production shifted depending on the health and effectiveness of the Colts' offense, and questions about Daniel Jones' health, the passing game, and Taylor's long-term durability all contributed to skepticism about drafting him as a top-three running back.”

“While Jonathan Taylor still sits near the top of fantasy RB rankings, the conversation highlighted growing concerns surrounding his current draft cost. The hosts pointed to Taylor's heavy workload and dependence on quarterback play as reasons for caution.”

“Jonathan Taylor rushing yards Under 1225.5 CZR -115 (1 unit)”

“Taylor finished last season with massive rushing totals, but his year felt uneven due to a dramatic late-season drop-off. The FantasyPros crew pointed to quarterback instability and schedule imbalance as major factors behind the decline.”