Puka Nacua vs De'Von Achane

“Puka Nacua (ADP ~230, finished WR5 as a rookie) and Brian Thomas Jr. are the modern proof points. But pointing to them ex post does not make them findable ex ante – the average outcome at their ADP was still a miss.”

“A potential Puka Nacua Rams extension is covered in this week's mailbag.”

“Even while the Rams shift offensive philosophy and use more heavy sets with multiple tight ends, Nacua continues to eat. It's rare to see a player of Nacua's caliber receive such small compensation, with his cap hit for 2026 at $1,204,244 compared to Justin Jefferson's $38,987,600.”

“Stafford is throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, so it is not shocking that he was so efficient last season. But we have also seen him be less efficient in this system in the very recent past.”

“Puka Nacua proved to be an elite high-volume target, leading the NFL with 129 receptions and averaging 107.2 yards per game while earning first-team All-Pro honors.”

“Nacua is coming off a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns, which, until 2025, had been the only area of his game that lacked. Perhaps with an improving defense, the Rams don't go quite as pass-heavy this year, but Sean McVay has nearly always been aggressive, and Nacua deserves to be a top-five pick while Matthew Stafford is healthy.”

“Off the field, Puka Nacua hasn't had a great offseason, and the Rams seem slightly hesitant to extend him, with reports suggesting that's not in their immediate plans, despite Nacua being extension-eligible and watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the market. This sets Nacua up for what should be a massive prove-it year, both on and off the field.”

“Most of the players from the last few rounds of your draft won't be on your roster at the end unless you hit on a 2023 Puka Nacua or 2025 Alec Pierce or another similar breakout story.”

“With his declining ability and playing alongside Puka Nacua, he's not going to rack up targets like a usual fantasy WR1.”

“L.A. also has Turner, Byron Young, Puka Nacua, Steve Avila, Warren McClendon.”

“A record-setting extension for the Rams wide receiver is seen as a foregone conclusion, though Nacua's off-field decision-making could factor into the terms of his potential future extension and the Rams may decide there's something they need to see from Nacua before they can feel comfortable signing him long-term.”

“Even with one missed game last year, Nacua delivered on that momentum, setting new career highs with 129 receptions (most in the NFL), 1,715 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns.”

“De'Von Achane's recent Dolphins extension of four years and $64MM has Robinson and Gibbs potentially positioned to eclipse this deal on their second contracts and reset the market as a whole.”

“New general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan has publicly identified running back De'Von Achane as a core player he would like to retain, and he has since given lucrative extensions to Achane and center Aaron Brewer.”

“Malik Willis, however, could impact Achane's targets due to his propensity to break from the pocket. This tendency will rob Achane of the checkdown volume that he enjoyed with Tua Tagoviloa under center.”

“We would be kidding ourselves if we didn't consider Achane to be the centerpiece of the Dolphins' offense and our fantasy rosters. Stacking this receiving production on top of the leader of 40+ yard rushes since 2023 feels like cheating, but because of this, he will be the highest-scoring Dolphin for fantasy this year.”

“Achane is certainly talented enough to overcome these obstacles, but the concerns around him aren't factored into his early second-round average draft position (ADP). I'm not projecting him to fall into RB3 territory, but an RB2 finish is certainly plausible, which would be a major disappointment.”

“I was high on De'Von Achane last season, and I still expect him to get a ton of usage. Repeating his 2025 season, however, feels a bit lofty. The massive season came under Mike McDaniel's offense, which featured one of the league's most creative rushing attacks. McDaniel is now in Los Angeles as the Chargers' offensive coordinator.”

“This season, Malik Willis is slated to be under center for Miami. He's a dual-threat passer who will take away some of Achane's receiving opportunities when he decides to tuck it and run. If Achane gets roughly 75-80% of the targets he's been getting, he'll be a fine second-round selection. But if the receptions plummet, he'll be hard-pressed to pay off his fantasy football ADP.”

“De'Von Achane is currently going just outside of round one with an ADP of 15.5, but that has more to do with uncertainty around his offensive environment than his talent. Since 2024, Achane has amassed 145 receptions for 1,080 yards and 10 scores through the air. In 2025, 43.3% of Achane's fantasy points came via receiving. In 2024, it was an absurd 57.8%.”

“De'Von Achane has been terrific throughout his NFL career, but when Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill weren't on the field, Achane saw significant target share increases (14.8%, 18.4%, and 15.6% respectively). However, with the Dolphins having almost no receiving talent besides Achane and a new quarterback in Malik Willis who saw limited time as a starter, a top-five result might be a bit lofty despite his expected volume.”

“Miami RBs Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon II are competing for time as De'Von Achane's primary backup.”

“As for his first impression of HC Jeff Hafley, Achane said he's noticing the relationships he's building with their entire roster. "Great coach. This is my first time having a head coach that's a defensive guy, so I'm always telling him like, OK, get on the defensive side of the ball, but he's a great coach, man. You see now the relationships he's building, he's trying to get to know everybody."”

“Achane mentioned on a podcast that he doesn't have time to be on a rebuilding team. He explained he can't have the mindset that they are going to "lose every game." "As a football player that's a competitor, the rebuild phrase for me it's like, OK, they're basically saying we're going out here to lose every game."”