Puka Nacua vs Ashton Jeanty

“Puka Nacua (ADP ~230, finished WR5 as a rookie) and Brian Thomas Jr. are the modern proof points. But pointing to them ex post does not make them findable ex ante – the average outcome at their ADP was still a miss.”

“A potential Puka Nacua Rams extension is covered in this week's mailbag.”

“Even while the Rams shift offensive philosophy and use more heavy sets with multiple tight ends, Nacua continues to eat. It's rare to see a player of Nacua's caliber receive such small compensation, with his cap hit for 2026 at $1,204,244 compared to Justin Jefferson's $38,987,600.”

“Stafford is throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, so it is not shocking that he was so efficient last season. But we have also seen him be less efficient in this system in the very recent past.”

“Puka Nacua proved to be an elite high-volume target, leading the NFL with 129 receptions and averaging 107.2 yards per game while earning first-team All-Pro honors.”

“Nacua is coming off a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns, which, until 2025, had been the only area of his game that lacked. Perhaps with an improving defense, the Rams don't go quite as pass-heavy this year, but Sean McVay has nearly always been aggressive, and Nacua deserves to be a top-five pick while Matthew Stafford is healthy.”

“Off the field, Puka Nacua hasn't had a great offseason, and the Rams seem slightly hesitant to extend him, with reports suggesting that's not in their immediate plans, despite Nacua being extension-eligible and watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the market. This sets Nacua up for what should be a massive prove-it year, both on and off the field.”

“Most of the players from the last few rounds of your draft won't be on your roster at the end unless you hit on a 2023 Puka Nacua or 2025 Alec Pierce or another similar breakout story.”

“With his declining ability and playing alongside Puka Nacua, he's not going to rack up targets like a usual fantasy WR1.”

“L.A. also has Turner, Byron Young, Puka Nacua, Steve Avila, Warren McClendon.”

“A record-setting extension for the Rams wide receiver is seen as a foregone conclusion, though Nacua's off-field decision-making could factor into the terms of his potential future extension and the Rams may decide there's something they need to see from Nacua before they can feel comfortable signing him long-term.”

“Even with one missed game last year, Nacua delivered on that momentum, setting new career highs with 129 receptions (most in the NFL), 1,715 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns.”

“One player available at this spot with undeniable upside is Ashton Jeanty. When the Raiders selected him sixth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, the expectations were tempered slightly because of where the Raiders were as an offense. What wasn't expected, though, was how dramatically bad the offense performed, starting with the offensive line, which ranked dead last in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) offensive line rankings.”

“He racked up over 1,200 yards and scored 10 times behind an abysmal offensive line. Now he gets Klint Kubiak as his head coach, bringing over an offensive system that helped Seattle win the Super Bowl. Expect Jeanty's efficiency to skyrocket if he keeps evading tackles as he did in 2025, when his juke rate (27.7%) ranked fifth among all running backs.”

“You can make a similar case for Ashton Jeanty, assuming the Raiders are better up front after their offseason additions and coaching changes and are better overall on offense with either Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza at quarterback.”

“The Raiders' offensive line allowed Jeanty to get contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 54% of his carries, the league's second-worst rate.”

“Jeanty is a volatile pick who could fail to live up to the expectations that accompany his fantasy football ADP, despite a massive ceiling if the Raiders' offensive line gels and new quarterback Mendoza clicks right away.”

“Despite a massive workload last season, Jeanty was only the RB17 in half-PPR points per game (12.8) among running backs with at least eight games played, and volume alone won't assure Jeanty pans out and finishes as an RB6 or better this season.”

“It's going to be an uphill battle for Mike Washington to dominate backfield touches, given that the Raiders have an all-time running back prospect ahead of him with Ashton Jeanty.”

“Raiders RB coach Omar Young said the team has put RB Ashton Jeanty "in all different kinds of positions to see exactly what he can and cannot do."”

“Ashton Jeanty finished the 2025 season with 245.1 PPR points, one of only two rookies to score more than 215.0 points.”

“Ashton Jeanty was the only rookie to finish as an RB1 in PPR scoring, ending the year as the RB11.”

“Raiders HC Klint Kubiak says the team plans to challenge RB Ashton Jeanty in his sophomore season and put pressure on him in order to get the best out of last year's first-round pick. "We want to put a lot of pressure on Ashton," Kubiak said. "The next guy that steps up, whoever that may be, that's going to be seen here in practice, OTAs and training camp, but we think we should continue to challenge Ashton and get more out of him."”

“Fitzmaurice drafted Ashton Jeanty over Jonathan Taylor late in the first round. Fitz explained that Jeanty survived terrible offensive circumstances last season and still managed double-digit touchdowns. The expectation now is that Las Vegas will field a significantly improved rushing environment thanks to offensive line upgrades and a coaching staff expected to lean heavily on the run game.”