Mike Evans
vs D'Andre Swift

“Evans is not being drafted at WR27 because he suddenly stopped winning routes. He is being discounted because he is 33, has changed teams, and is coming off the first injury-ravaged season of his career.”

“However, if he ends up playing 13+ games, fantasy managers will be ecstatic. Another reason I am willing to take the risk of injury with Evans is that when he plays, he should be a locked-in top-12 player on this offense each week.”

“Mike Evans is now in San Francisco, which is important because when Evans wasn’t on the field last season, Egbuka’s target share was 28%”

“Mike Evans has a new home with the 49ers, and he looks like a wonderful value in fantasy drafts.”

“Evans is almost 33 years old with an accumulation of injuries over 12 years. We are dangerously close to the performance cliff here, so it is perilous to assume that he will just absorb most of the 168-target vacancy.”

“Watch this space with the arrival of Mike Evans in San Francisco. Evans has been an integral part of one of the most efficient offenses in this category during his time down in Tampa Bay, and it will be interesting to see if that advantage translates to the same extent in Kyle Shanahan's system.”

“Investing in Evans can be risky, but we know he's got talent, is in a good situation, and is paired with a solid quarterback. This could be shaping up to be 2025 Davante Adams, which was a smash value in drafts.”

“Ted Hurst also has some potential as a big outside weapon and could replace some of Mike Evans' targets.”

“Evans is obviously a clear WR1, and he still commanded a large target share when on the field last season. There was a slip in his efficiency, though.”

“Mike Evans is set to play the first season of his 11-year career outside of Tampa Bay after signing a one-year deal with the San Francisco 49ers. He has the inside track to be the 49ers' WR1. The only concerns about Evans at his ADP are his age and health. Evans is entering his age-33 season, where production can rapidly decline. He has also missed 14 games over the last two campaigns.”

“Among 43 qualifying backs, Swift is eighth in yards after contact per attempt and tenth in missed tackle rate. Swift has 14 of the team’s 20 running back red zone carries while playing 64.1% of the snaps with a 51.4% rushing share, a 35.7% route share, and a 9.2% target share. Swift should have another strong stat line this week against a Jets’ run defense that has allowed the second-highest rushing success rate, the tenth-most yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.”

“Still, Swift’s ECR ranking of RB13 is a bit too rich for me. He’s a fine back and as consistent as they come, but Swift has never finished that high positionally in his six NFL seasons.”

“Swift had the better role and scored 17.7 half-PPR points per game with 17.75 expected half-PPR points per game, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0. Monangai averaged 9.77 half-PPR points per game and 7.29 expected half-PPR points per game. According to Jahnke, Swift had a 61.1% snap share versus 38.9% for Monangai over the first six drives, but Swift lost a fumble on the sixth drive.”

“Among 43 qualifying backs, Swift ranks sixth in yards after contact per attempt and eighth in missed tackle rate. Swift should have success again this week. Philly has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest missed tackle rate.”

““ D’Andre Swift’s fantasy outlook is usually pretty rosy with the potent Bears’ offense and a weaker defensive opponent, but not this week. The injuries to Caleb Williams and backup Tyson Bagent have put a dark cloud over the Windy City. Chicago might have to go with veteran Case Keenum against a stout Eagles’ defense, led by their star linemen Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter .”

“D’Andre Swift has one of the largest deltas (12%) in his TPRR and his True Target Rate (factoring in pass blocks).”

“D’Andre Swift ran for 124 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries, splitting time in the backfield with Kyle Monangai , who had a great day in his own respects (10 carries for 100 yards and a score). Swift was able to find gaping holes all afternoon against Carolina, with head coach Ben Johnson dialing up plays to utilize his quickness in space. Look for this trend to continue as long as he stays healthy this season.”

“D’Andre Swift will be our RB1 with Jeremiyah Love possibly on the shelf for at least the first week. Swift cleared 1,000 yards last season while being part of a committee.”

“D’Andre Swift may share Chicago’s backfield with Kyle Monangai , but the Bears should field one of the league’s better offenses under head coach and accomplished running-game designer Ben Johnson .”