Luther Burden vs Jaylen Waddle
2026 draft comparison · half-PPR
Updated Aug 10, 2026
All time: Burden 31%Waddle 69%
Should you draft Luther Burden or Jaylen Waddle?
Last season — 2025, per game
Full game log & past seasons
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | TGT | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | MIN | 0.2 | WR118 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
2 | DET | 1.0 | WR115 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
3 | DAL | 18.3 | WR6 | 3 | 3 | 101 | 1 |
4 | LV | 0.6 | WR110 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
6 | WAS | 7.1 | WR36 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
7 | NO | 2.6 | WR78 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
8 | BAL | 0.4 | WR93 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
10 | NYG | 6.6 | WR41 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
11 | MIN | 4.2 | WR57 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
12 | PIT | 7.6 | WR35 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
13 | PHI | 5.6 | WR47 | 6 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
14 | GB | 9.0 | WR28 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
15 | CLE | 11.4 | WR26 | 7 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
17 | SF | 23.8 | WR1 | 9 | 8 | 138 | 1 |
18 | DET | 6.0 | WR38 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | TGT | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | IND | 5.0 | WR57 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
2 | NE | 15.3 | WR14 | 6 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
3 | BUF | 12.4 | WR23 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
4 | NYJ | 6.3 | WR47 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
5 | CAR | 20.0 | WR4 | 9 | 6 | 110 | 1 |
6 | LAC | 12.8 | WR17 | 8 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
7 | CLE | 2.0 | WR86 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
8 | ATL | 18.4 | WR4 | 6 | 5 | 99 | 1 |
9 | BAL | 11.2 | WR27 | 9 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
10 | BUF | 16.9 | WR11 | 7 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
11 | WAS | 6.7 | WR40 | 7 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
13 | NO | 5.5 | WR48 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
14 | NYJ | 15.6 | WR10 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
15 | PIT | 3.6 | WR72 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
16 | CIN | 9.7 | WR29 | 9 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
17 | TB | 0.7 | WR118 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Earlier seasons (2024)
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | TGT | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | JAX | 13.7 | WR17 | 5 | 5 | 109 | 0 |
2 | BUF | 6.5 | WR39 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
3 | SEA | 4.6 | WR68 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
4 | TEN | 5.6 | WR60 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
5 | NE | 6.6 | WR48 | 8 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
7 | IND | 1.6 | WR93 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
8 | ARI | 6.5 | WR56 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
9 | BUF | 6.6 | WR46 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
10 | LAR | 7.1 | WR35 | 6 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
11 | LV | 4.7 | WR57 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
12 | NE | 24.4 | WR3 | 9 | 8 | 144 | 1 |
13 | GB | 9.3 | WR36 | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
14 | NYJ | 16.4 | WR16 | 12 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
15 | HOU | 0.0 | WR138 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
18 | NYJ | 7.0 | WR52 | 9 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
Latest takes
“Luther Burden III (groin) will miss some time after suffering a groin injury in practice. (Source: Ian Rapoport on X) Fantasy Impact: This is awful news for Burden drafters and managers. He will see his stock drop in drafts, and don’t be surprised if he gets off to a slow start once he comes back.”
FantasyPros Staff· Aug 9“Ever since DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo, Burden’s ADP shot up like a cannon. He’s still ranked above proven veterans like Moore, Christian Watson , and Mike Evans . From Week 13 on last season, among receivers with at least 100 routes run, Burden ranked third in yards per route run, fifth in targets per route run, and fourth in first downs per route run, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite.”
Kyle Zeigler· Aug 7“4th in yards per route run behind Puka Nacua , Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Luther Burden .”
FantasyPros Staff· Aug 5
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“This is a reference to a song by The Rolling Stones. It also highlights how Luther Burden III is going to be an absolute beast this season. Don’t be afraid, buy into the hype. He’s a stud in a great situation.”
Frank Ammirante· Aug 4“08) – Luther Burden (WR, CHI) For the first and only time in this mock draft, Round 5 saw all three Ballers take a player at the same position.”
Kurt Mullen· Jul 29“Luther Burden III (WR – CHI) | ECR: WR24/ADP: 49 Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot of optimism surrounding Luther Burden III and this entire Bears offense.”
Kyle Zeigler· Jul 28“Like most fantasy football enthusiasts, count me among the stans. I am a fan of Burden’s game. I think he is great, but the LTV absolutely loves Burden.”
Jonathan Lange· Jul 21“Burden averaged 13.9 YPC, which is high when considering his low aDOT. That's attributable to the fact that Burden was a YAC machine in 2025, averaging 7.1 YAC per reception, which ranked 3rd in the NFL among WRs.”
Kemper Trull· Jul 10“Burden finished 2025 with a paltry 12.8% target share on the season. This number obviously grew throughout the season, as his snap share increased, but that's still an uninspiring number. Better, though, were his Team Reception % (16%), Team Receiving Yards % (19%), and team WR Points % (26.9%), which shows how efficient Burden was when targeted.”
Kemper Trull· Jul 10“From Weeks 10-18, Burden posted a WR5 overall finish with 2.67 YPRR. Burden was highly efficient on a per-route basis, and extrapolating that efficiency across a 17-game season in a full-time role would lock him into a top-12 finish at his position.”
Jim Moorman· Jul 10“Rookie WR Luther Burden III started off slow but stepped up when it counted – in the playoffs. He was incredibly efficient with the ball, averaging 2.69 yards per route run, but he only earned a 13% target share on the season.”
Maggie Thraen· Jul 9“With D.J. Moore now in Buffalo, the table is set for Burden to take on a much larger role. If he builds on a rookie season in which he ranked third in yards per route run (2.79), Burden's value will shoot up higher than a reloadable mortar.”
Wolf Trelles-Heard· Jul 4“Burden lit up the 49ers in Week 17, racking up eight receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers made him the overall WR1 during fantasy championship week.”
Wolf Trelles-Heard· Jul 4“Luther Burden's numbers look incredible but he ran such a low percentage of the team's routes (RT %) that a 2026 leap needs to be contextualized with a new role in the Chicago offense.”
Kyle Borgognoni· Jul 3“Burden's Mid-Round 4 ADP is objectively one of the slappiest ADPs in the history of Best Ball. We're talking about a player with 652 career receiving yards being drafted ahead of the likes of Mike Evans and Davante Adams — not to mention two more established pass catchers on his own team. The conviction behind Burden despite stiff competition is driven by a strong college production profile and an elite year 1 YPRR in a part-time role.”
Jakob Sanderson· Jun 24
“Denver upgraded its receiving room in a big way with the trade for Jaylen Waddle , as not only did it add a dynamic No. 1 option to the room, it pushed everyone else down the pecking order into roles that should be better suited to their talents.”
Logan Ulrich· Aug 10“Jaylen Waddle was tied for fifth in first downs per route run last year, despite a horrendous offensive environment and putrid quarterback play.”
Josh Shepardson· Aug 7“#1 catch rate (83%) - with only 2 drops all season Sean Payton’s stated vision for Jaylen Waddle is slot-to-Z - the opposite of his charted usage, per Reception Perception:”
The FF Newsletter· Aug 6
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“Sutton has increased target competition in Denver this season after the Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle , but he has been a consistent TD threat with QB Bo Nix .”
Kurt Mullen· Jul 29“Jaylen Waddle (DEN) : ADP 42.5 | WR22 While the Miami Dolphins’ offense was inconsistent last season, Waddle ended the year as the WR24, averaging 12.1 PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, the veteran didn’t need a massive target share to produce top-12 fantasy numbers.”
Mike Fanelli· Jul 22“Jaylen Waddle (WR – DEN) It seemed in 2025, when Tyreek Hill got injured, that Jaylen Waddle was primed for another massive season.”
Tom Strachan· Jul 21“Jaylen Waddle , WR21 (Miami to Denver) It’s Jaylen Waddle SZN!”
FantasyPros Staff· Jul 21“With the passing attack expected to condense around just two clear focal points this year, Waddle projects as the offense’s unquestioned wide receiver one.”
FantasyPros Staff· Jul 20“Jaylen Waddle could vastly outproduce his fantasy football ADP. Currently going as the WR23, Waddle has true top-12 upside. After joining the Broncos this offseason, Waddle finds himself alongside an aging Courtland Sutton and a plethora of solid young talent.”
Ellis Johnson· Jul 10“With Courtland Sutton turning 31 this October and seeing a major drop in efficiency in 2025, it appears Waddle is set up perfectly to be the No. 1 wide receiver in Denver for the next several years. Waddle is valued as the WR20 in ECR, which feels like the floor outcome in PPR leagues.”
Jim Moorman· Jul 10“After posting back-to-back 15+ PPR point-per-game seasons to start his NFL career, Waddle seemed destined to usurp Tyreek Hill as the Dolphins' top target earner and establish himself as a top-five fantasy wide receiver overall. Unfortunately, that time never came, as Waddle continued to play second fiddle in Miami.”
Jim Moorman· Jul 10“Jaylen Waddle is a favorite draft target in the fifth round based on ADP.”
Pat Fitzmaurice· Jul 8“The Broncos parted with their first-round pick in the Jaylen Waddle trade.”
Ryan McCrystal· Jul 6“Joining a pass-heavy offense is precisely what Waddle needs to blossom into a fantasy football WR1 in 2026.”
Josh Shepardson· Jul 2“Jaylen Waddle will receive a sizable environmental upgrade in 2026. The Broncos freed him from the rebuilding Dolphins via a trade, and Waddle will step in as Denver's No. 1 wide receiver alongside a nifty, big-bodied complement in the form of No. 2 wide receiver Courtland Sutton.”
Josh Shepardson· Jul 2