Chase Brown
vs Justin Jefferson
2026 · Week 5 · Half-PPR
The crowd’s lean
Week 5No weekly comparisons recorded for this pair.
This week
WEEK 5Brown
at MIA
Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Jefferson
at NO
Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Questionable
16.9
Projected
13.4
Projected
Half-PPR
projection
2026 season, per game
2025 season, per game
Full game log & past seasons +
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | ATT | YD | TD | TGT | REC | RYD | RTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | — | 16.3 | RB14 | 16 | 56 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 22 | — |
2 | — | 9.7 | RB20 | 20 | 80 | — | 5 | 3 | 2 | — |
3 | — | 7.9 | RB30 | 13 | 61 | — | 2 | 2 | 8 | — |
4 | — | 13.6 | RB22 | 9 | 10 | — | 11 | 11 | 71 | — |
Earlier seasons (2025, 2024)
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | ATT | YD | TD | TGT | REC | RYD | RTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | CLE | 12.1 | RB21 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | — |
2 | JAX | 7.5 | RB34 | 16 | 47 | — | 3 | 2 | 18 | — |
3 | MIN | 4.0 | RB48 | 10 | 3 | — | 5 | 4 | 17 | — |
4 | DEN | 8.6 | RB37 | 10 | 40 | — | 3 | 3 | 31 | — |
5 | DET | 8.3 | RB28 | 8 | 27 | — | 8 | 7 | 21 | — |
6 | GB | 7.9 | RB20 | 9 | 42 | — | 2 | 2 | 7 | — |
7 | PIT | 11.0 | RB17 | 11 | 108 | — | 4 | 2 | -8 | — |
8 | NYJ | 24.0 | RB5 | 12 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
9 | CHI | 15.2 | RB8 | 11 | 37 | — | 14 | 8 | 75 | — |
10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
11 | PIT | 15.7 | RB15 | 18 | 99 | — | 8 | 6 | 28 | — |
12 | NE | 14.0 | RB13 | 19 | 107 | — | 4 | 2 | 23 | — |
13 | BAL | 14.8 | RB15 | 15 | 78 | — | 7 | 7 | 35 | — |
14 | BUF | 17.0 | RB8 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
15 | BAL | 12.5 | RB19 | 13 | 53 | — | 7 | 7 | 37 | — |
16 | MIA | 30.9 | RB2 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 |
17 | ARI | 27.6 | RB3 | 22 | 101 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 40 | — |
18 | CLE | 17.0 | RB10 | 13 | 72 | — | 6 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | ATT | YD | TD | TGT | REC | RYD | RTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | NE | 3.8 | RB43 | 3 | 11 | — | 3 | 3 | 12 | — |
2 | KC | 3.1 | RB52 | 4 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — |
3 | WAS | 7.9 | RB34 | 7 | 62 | — | 3 | 2 | 7 | — |
4 | CAR | 22.2 | RB5 | 15 | 80 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | — |
5 | BAL | 14.9 | RB12 | 12 | 46 | — | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
6 | NYG | 13.4 | RB19 | 10 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | — |
7 | CLE | 6.3 | RB36 | 15 | 44 | — | 2 | 2 | 9 | — |
8 | PHI | 10.4 | RB27 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | — |
9 | LV | 24.2 | RB5 | 27 | 120 | — | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
10 | BAL | 17.9 | RB4 | 13 | 42 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 52 | — |
11 | LAC | 16.8 | RB10 | 22 | 86 | — | 7 | 5 | 57 | — |
12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
13 | PIT | 17.5 | RB10 | 12 | 70 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 30 | — |
14 | DAL | 21.3 | RB6 | 14 | 58 | — | 8 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
15 | TEN | 24.8 | RB4 | 25 | 97 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
16 | CLE | 12.4 | RB20 | 18 | 91 | — | 3 | 3 | 18 | — |
17 | DEN | 11.1 | RB14 | 20 | 67 | — | 4 | 4 | 24 | — |
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | TGT | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | — | 27.2 | WR3 | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 |
2 | — | 7.0 | WR40 | 6 | 3 | 55 | — |
3 | — | 4.2 | WR73 | 2 | 2 | 32 | — |
4 | — | 0.0 | WR228 | — | — | — | — |
Earlier seasons (2025, 2024)
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | TGT | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | CHI | 12.8 | WR20 | 7 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
2 | ATL | 9.6 | WR38 | 6 | 3 | 81 | — |
3 | CIN | 10.0 | WR33 | 7 | 5 | 75 | — |
4 | PIT | 17.6 | WR9 | 11 | 10 | 126 | — |
5 | CLE | 15.8 | WR11 | 11 | 7 | 123 | — |
6 | BYE | — | — | — | — | — | — |
7 | PHI | 10.4 | WR26 | 10 | 5 | 79 | — |
8 | LAC | 10.9 | WR26 | 11 | 7 | 74 | — |
9 | DET | 13.7 | WR18 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
10 | BAL | 5.7 | WR44 | 12 | 4 | 37 | — |
11 | CHI | 8.6 | WR27 | 9 | 5 | 61 | — |
12 | GB | 6.8 | WR39 | 6 | 4 | 48 | — |
13 | SEA | 1.4 | WR95 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — |
14 | WAS | 2.1 | WR81 | 4 | 2 | 11 | — |
15 | DAL | 3.2 | WR77 | 8 | 2 | 22 | — |
16 | NYG | 11.5 | WR26 | 8 | 6 | 85 | — |
17 | DET | 5.0 | WR52 | 5 | 4 | 30 | — |
18 | GB | 14.4 | WR10 | 11 | 8 | 101 | — |
| WK | OPP | FPTS | RANK | TGT | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | NYG | 13.9 | WR15 | 6 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
2 | SF | 21.3 | WR7 | 7 | 4 | 133 | 1 |
3 | HOU | 17.1 | WR14 | 8 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
4 | GB | 17.5 | WR11 | 8 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
5 | NYJ | 12.2 | WR23 | 14 | 6 | 92 | — |
6 | BYE | — | — | — | — | — | — |
7 | DET | 17.9 | WR5 | 8 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
8 | LAR | 15.5 | WR13 | 9 | 8 | 115 | — |
9 | IND | 18.1 | WR9 | 9 | 7 | 137 | — |
10 | JAX | 7.3 | WR33 | 9 | 5 | 48 | — |
11 | TEN | 11.1 | WR29 | 8 | 6 | 81 | — |
12 | CHI | 3.7 | WR64 | 5 | 2 | 27 | — |
13 | ARI | 13.4 | WR23 | 9 | 7 | 99 | — |
14 | ATL | 28.7 | WR4 | 7 | 7 | 132 | 2 |
15 | CHI | 16.8 | WR15 | 14 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
16 | SEA | 31.4 | WR1 | 13 | 10 | 144 | 2 |
17 | GB | 13.2 | WR29 | 11 | 8 | 92 | — |
18 | DET | 6.9 | WR55 | 9 | 3 | 54 | — |
Expert takes
“Favorite Stack: Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and Chase Brown are scattered throughout the articles this week, so this is where I want to lean into the stance instead of pretending those plays are independent. The fact that this game is Andy’s Almost Upset of the Week scares me more than it did a few days ago, but I still like the combo. Tee Higgins is due for a 20+ yard TD.”
Chris Cash· Sep 26, 2026“Chase Brown | $6,600 | @ PIT Brown has already handled 36 carries and eight receptions, including 23 touches last week against HOU (see, go get em, Jonathan Taylor ). PIT has allowed 256 rushing yards through two games at 4.3 yards per carry, so this matchup is juicy. Projection : 16.79 DK points at 10.35% pOwn, with a 27-point ceiling.”
Chris Cash· Sep 25, 2026“Chase Brown posted a 72% snap share, matching a true bell-cow workload — team-high 16 carries, including a designed goal-line touchdown, plus 5 catches on 6 targets.”
Andrew Erickson· Sep 16, 2026
See 7 more
“On the other side of the ball, Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase , Higgins, and Chase Brown are all easy starts for the Ballers.”
Jordan Pullett· Sep 12, 2026“TB | DraftKings: $7,100/FanDuel: $7,500 Chase Brown is a workhorse running back in an elite offense. You can go with Jahmyr Gibbs here, too, but I prefer to save a bit of salary with Brown. The Bengals face the Buccaneers in a projected shootout, as highlighted by the game’s 50.5-point total.”
Frank Ammirante· Sep 12, 2026“Chase Brown ( CIN) : ADP 13.6 | RB 8 After a quiet rookie season, Brown has turned into a fantasy star.”
Mike Fanelli· Aug 31, 2026“2026 NFL Overs: Best Running Back Prop Bets David Montgomery — Over 825.5 Rushing Yards (-114) David Montgomery — Over 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-102) Chase Brown — Over 824.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Chase Brown — Over 5.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-125) 2026 NFL Longshot Running Back Prop Bets David Montgomery Touchdown Ladder 10+ Touchdowns (+195) 12+ Touchdowns (+350) 15+ Touchdowns (+800) Chase Brown Rushing Ladder 1000+ Rushing Yards (+210) 1250+ Rushing Yards (+550) 1500+ Rushing Yards (+1700) Fantasy football projections, like those done by Rich Hribar , can be a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets.”
Curtis Hirsch· Aug 11, 2026“I don’t think any other running back is set up as well as Chase Brown is this season. The London, Ontario native is primed for his third straight top-12 season.”
Ellis Johnson· Aug 11, 2026“Chase Brown (RB – CIN) has real top-three overall ceiling that isn’t being discussed enough.”
FantasyPros Staff· Aug 10, 2026“Chase Brown is expected to play an important role in a highly functioning offense that could finish as one of the top-scoring teams in 2026. Brown is a pass-catching back who adds a vast amount of value due to his high reception rate, and dual threat in regards to touchdowns (11 total) . The running back for the Bengals caught 69 receptions for 437 yards.”
Steve Krebs· Aug 8, 2026
“Jefferson missed the Vikings’ 15-10 win over the Dolphins last Sunday with a sprained ankle, and Addison is dealing with a hamstring injury.”
Connor Byrne· Oct 10, 2026“Justin Jefferson caught 3 of a team-high 6 targets for 55 yards, no touchdown. Remains the unambiguous WR1 (33.3% adjusted target share, 61% air yards share) even in a shrunken passing game. Jordan Addison caught 2 of 5 targets for 21 yards.”
Andrew Erickson· Sep 22, 2026“Wentz threw for just 133 yards in about 3.5 quarters of play Sunday, but his three TDs and clear connection with Justin Jefferson should at least catch fantasy managers’ eyes.”
Kurt Mullen· Sep 15, 2026
See 11 more
“Jefferson looked especially miserable last year while enduring the worst season of his career. With J.J. McCarthy completely overwhelmed as an NFL quarterback, Jefferson finished with 84 catches, 1,048 yards, and two touchdowns.”
Pat Fitzmaurice· Sep 9, 2026“Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | ADP: 11.8 (WR6) While he has been a fantasy superstar since entering the NFL, Justin Jefferson is coming off a massively disappointing season.”
Mike Fanelli· Aug 29, 2026“Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) Finishes Outside the Top 20 Wide Receivers The prediction: Jefferson, currently going as a top-six receiver, finishes this season outside the top 20 at his position. This is partly a skepticism play on his new starting quarterback’s fit in this specific offense, particularly real questions about accessing the middle of the field effectively. Even last year, on a per-route basis, Jefferson already graded as only a fringe top-15 to top-17 receiver in efficiency metrics, not a true elite option, once poor quarterback play is set aside.”
FantasyPros Staff· Aug 28, 2026“Jefferson has been a fantasy superstar since he entered the NFL. Unfortunately, the veteran is coming off a massively disappointing season, finishing last year as the WR21, averaging 11.9 PPR fantasy points per game despite finishing seventh in the league with 141 targets.”
Mike Fanelli· Aug 15, 2026“With a better quarterback, Justin Jefferson is a top-five pick, but with J.J. McCarthy ‘s past poor play and the uncertainty of Kyler Murray , we get a discount on one of the best wide receivers in the league.”
Kurt Blakeway· Aug 14, 2026“Last year, Jefferson was still sixth in target share (28.5%) and seventh in first-read share (35.1%), so we should all expect the Minnesota passing attack to run through their alpha wide receiver again in 2026.”
FantasyPros Staff· Aug 14, 2026“Last year, Justin Jefferson had a horrible runout as the WR28 in fantasy points per game (WR14 in expected fantasy points per game). Obviously, a ton of his season was impacted by the level of quarterback play, but Jefferson also slid to 36th in separation score and 38th in route win rate (among 109 qualifying receivers, per Fantasy Points Data).”
FantasyPros Staff· Aug 14, 2026“Justin Jefferson is the fifth-best wide receiver in the Madden universe, apparently”
The FF Newsletter· Aug 6, 2026“This wasn’t Jefferson’s fault, however. Among wide receivers with 50+ targets, Jefferson ranked 58th in catchable target rate (71%). J.J. McCarthy stunk, and all indications are that Kyler Murray is the clear favorite to be the starter in 2026, and possibly beyond.”
Tom Strachan· Jul 27, 2026“Jefferson should immediately become Murray’s go-to receiver, making an overall WR1 finish well within reach.”
Kyle Zeigler· Jul 23, 2026“The Ballers agree that if Kyler takes the leading QB role, they are confident that Jefferson will be back as a top-tier WR. However, they see him more as a back-end WR1.”
Maggie Thraen· Jul 19, 2026
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