Brian Thomas vs Jaylen Warren

“The target competition is stiffer now, with Jakobi Meyers joining the team midway through the 2025 season and Parker Washington looking like a breakout star late in the year. The Jags say two-way player Travis Hunter will be deployed primarily as a cornerback this year, but he’s a potential wild card as a target thief. This just doesn’t seem like an ecosystem that sets up well for a Brian Thomas Jr. bounce-back.”

“Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC) | ADP: 74.0 (WR30) Brian Thomas Jr. had an electrifying rookie campaign. He finished as the WR4 in half-PPR points (240.5) and was tied for the WR11 in half-PPR points per game (14.1) among those who played at least eight games in 2024.”

“I do not see a single player in the Jaguars’ receiving room with higher upside than Brian Thomas Jr .”

“It's hard to trust Brian Thomas Jr. as a WR2 in PPR leagues. In situations where Meyers was on the field for the Jaguars last season, Thomas's target share was third on the team at under 17%, and he only caught 18 out of 30 targets for 287 yards and scored once.”

“You have the absolute letdown of 2025, Brian Thomas Jr., who basically played no part in the Jags' success last year. He disappeared despite the team's success, ending as the WR44.”

“Josh Cameron is a big downfield weapon who has the potential to develop into a valuable receiver, especially if Brian Thomas Jr. isn't part of the team's long-term plans.”

“Brian Thomas Jr. was playing through wrist, shoulder, and ankle injuries for much of the 2025 season, which severely impacted his production. We could certainly see the rookie version of Thomas again.”

“The talent that made BTJ a breakout star still exists, but his connection with Trevor Lawrence never consistently clicked in Liam Coen's system. Until Jacksonville proves willing to feature him more prominently again, Thomas profiles as more of a volatile upside WR3/4 than the ascending alpha many expected entering 2025.”

“Brian Thomas Jr.'s sophomore season was a major disappointment after the lofty expectations created by his explosive rookie campaign. Injuries constantly interrupted his momentum, while Jacksonville's offense increasingly funneled targets toward players like Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Brenton Strange.”

“Puka Nacua (ADP ~230, finished WR5 as a rookie) and Brian Thomas Jr. (ADP ~110, finished WR3) are the modern proof points. But pointing to them ex post does not make them findable ex ante – the average outcome at their ADP was still a miss.”

“If you are stuck holding in dynasty, there is no point moving Thomas. He could/must bounce back to some degree. Plus, with last year's trade talks, there is a world where he could get a fresh start.”

“The Jaguars boast Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter as their top three wide receivers, and Brenton Strange as a perfectly cromulent pass-catching tight end.”

“Round 8: Jaylen Warren (RB – PHI) Bringing in Rico Dowdle makes me nervous, but with other loaded positions, I started to load up on running back talent that I think could get at least 50% of the carries on their team.”

“Jaylen Warren is a good player, but the Steelers brought in Mike McCarthy and signed Rico Dowdle . Remember that Dowdle was the Cowboys’ running back when McCarthy was head coach.”

“Warren has been the one constant in Pittsburgh’s backfield over the last several years. He’s answered the bell when called on to do whatever has been needed of him. Through the years, he’s become a solid, well-rounded back who can really do it all.”

“Warren profiles more as the pass catcher and security blanket for Rodgers, but his inefficiency around the goal line may have him giving up those valuable touches to Dowdle, who, despite a small sample size, was extremely effective.”

“Jaylen Warren is a favorite draft target in the seventh round based on ADP.”

“Jaylen Warren should be a target magnet for Aaron Rodgers and is more of an elite playmaker than the newly acquired Rico Dowdle.”

“They swapped in Rico Dowdle for Kenneth Gainwell, and the incoming running back is a better stylistic complement to incumbent Jaylen Warren.”

“Pat Fitzmaurice argued that Warren's pass-catching ability, pass protection skills, and overall versatility make him a strong fit for Pittsburgh's offense. If that role expands further, his current draft cost could become one of the better values at running back.”

“Warren is coming off a career year, but Dowdle handled 236 carries last season and was similarly effective, making this backfield harder to predict. Part of Warren's fantasy appeal is his receiving skill, but Dowdle is no slouch in that department. He caught 39 passes in back-to-back seasons while also rushing for 1,000 yards, something Warren hasn't done.”

“You can take your pick of this backfield between Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle, who both finished as fantasy studs last season. My money is on Warren turning into a dud. Dowdle brings more competition for early-down work than Kenneth Gainwell did.”

“Warren has the type of pass-catching profile that ages a bit more gracefully than his "grinder" running back brethren. Since 2023, Warren has been in the top 10 among all running backs in yards per route run (YPRR). In addition to being the presumed early-down back, he is set up to also be the primary passing option out of the backfield this year for an aging Aaron Rodgers.”

“Warren is just flat out the better blocker and receiver, and Warren likely would have the better shot at RB1 upside in PPR.”